Crunchy Con

Huckabee: The Palin dragonslayer?

Sunday July 5, 2009

Categories: Republicans
Steve Waldman says that if Sarah Palin is planning a 2012 run for the GOP presidential nomination, only Mike Huckabee can stop her from locking up the religious conservative base. That sounds about right to me. Strangely enough, the fact...
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Comments
Simon
July 5, 2009 9:47 PM

2012 will bring forth candidates most people aren't even thinking about now, in the same way that both Palin and Huckabee came out of nowhere in 2008.

And who are these non-religious GOP voters who like Huckabee? His backing in 2008 came almost exclusively from evangelicals. And after his surprise showing in Iowa, he was competitive only in the Deep South.

Glynn
July 5, 2009 10:08 PM
http://faithfictionfriends.blogspot.com

Rod, when I was at LSU in the 1970s, we had David Duke riling the crowd in front of the Student Union. And Edwin Edwards had just won his first term as governor. I look at Bobby Jindal and realize that Louisiana just doesn't make politicians like it used to.

pagansister
July 5, 2009 10:08 PM

I don't think that if Huckabee ran in 2012, he will have to worry about Palin. IMO she cooked her own goose when she quit as governor of Alaska. How could the Republicans even consider nominating her for the position of president?

Mike L.
July 5, 2009 10:23 PM

I attended Murray State University in Kentucky and I think those guys were on our campus, too! Hadn't thought about them in years, lol...

obi juan
July 5, 2009 10:41 PM

I hear you pagansister, but I also didn't think Republicans would consider nominating Juan McCain. Goes to show how much I know.

Kirk
July 5, 2009 10:48 PM

Rod wrote, "Of course there really are elites who are driven berserk by Palin, and who do have an inexplicable obsession with tearing this woman down."

Pot, meet Kettle.

rachel
July 5, 2009 10:50 PM

Any U of Michigan alumni remember Preacher Mike on the diag?

Serr8d
July 5, 2009 10:52 PM

Now come on. You know that if it comes down to Mr. Obama, who only calls on God and uses religion to further his own causes (12 years of Reverend Wright teaching him some Black Liberation Theology as a poor substitute for Christianity) vs. Sarah Palin (who actually prays and means it) any thinking person who's not atheist or leftist (same thing) must support Sarah. Mike Huckabee could not even wrest the nomination away from an old, washed-up half-progressive old man (did I mention he was old?) who should never have secured the nomination in the first place. Best if Huckabee and Romney both decline to run; neither one of those could beat the ChicagO! machine.

It's going to take a populist who can polarize a lot of moderates, and a general feeling of sick-of-Obama to have a chance. That, my friends, is Sarah Palin.

Charles Cosimano
July 5, 2009 11:03 PM

Well, predicting anything from this far out is foolish but a good guess is that unless Obama really screws up and does a Jimmy Carter, there is no social/religious conservative that could win against him in any event.

Of course if he really screws up then the Republicans could run Lenin's dog and win.

Zoetius
July 5, 2009 11:17 PM

The young men were likely taught growing up that signs that their message was effective would be people rejecting and "persecuting" them.

The more they were loathed and despised the more they knew their preaching was "convicting sinners" of their "sin".

I was taught growing up that the more resistance and negative consequences I received exercising the beliefs I was raised with the surer I could be I was doing the right thing.

Mt 5:10-11

Probably what keeps the Westboro Baptist church going too sigh.

freelunch
July 5, 2009 11:19 PM

... when I was at LSU in the 1970s, we had David Duke riling the crowd in front of the Student Union. And Edwin Edwards had just won his first term as governor. I look at Bobby Jindal and realize that Louisiana just doesn't make politicians like it used to.

Sometimes, that's a good thing. When the lesser of the two evils is the felon, you have problems. Jindal's only problem is that he's willing to agree to the Club for Growth lies to further his career (and Kenneth of 30 Rock). I don't agree with his politics, but he appears to be much better than the folks Louisiana has been stuck with ever since the Kingfish took control.

Zoetius
July 5, 2009 11:23 PM

Think we could squeeze 4 years out of Wendel Berry?

John
July 5, 2009 11:48 PM

How about 'neither'? I'd like to see the GOP and its constituency abandon the entire polarizing religious/social/culturewar political project, and focus on the objectively acute problems like deficits, productivity, etc. Let Huckabee and Palin focus their culturual energies on their respective churches, and let rational businessmen like Romney (or whoever, pick some other name) lead the party.

Cecelia
July 6, 2009 12:24 AM

One has to wonder if Palin won't implode long before 2012.

Huckabee is an interesting guy - he knows his domestic issues and has some interesting ideas. He'll get a bigger audience with his TV show.
What he needs to do - and what I bet Palin is going to do - is make friends by showing up at Republican fundraisers and helping out.

If the economy is really bad by 2012 - people are not going for a small government - bigger military (Palin's position) global warming denier cut taxes for the rich sort of candidate - they'll get really radical - far right or far left. Maybe even a third party.

Ralph Wiggum
July 6, 2009 1:48 AM

Rod. You're being disingenuous about the liberal elite picking on Palin. They are to a degree, but just as the messenger. The GOP is killing her at the moment, trying to knock her out. I suspect it's Romney. The Vanity Fair article was pure GOP gold. McCain's people want to work and WIN next election. They don't want to work with Palin. That means they have to take her down. They've been working overtime to do it. The left just gets all excited when the chance to bang her presents itself. I'm sure Obama and co. don't really care about her.

PP Kozon
July 6, 2009 1:58 AM

Zoetius,

I doubt Wendell Berry could stomach Washington for four minutes. :-)

New Age Cowboy
July 6, 2009 3:27 AM

Rod, or any other Crunchy Con for that matter,
How the heck does Sarah Palin become a lame duck when her own party rules the legislature in Alaska? I have a feeling this lady is narcissistic and crazy. I've worked with people in positions of authority like her and they ruin entire organizations.
Palin is the GOP's cross to bare for the foreseeable future.

Thomas R
July 6, 2009 4:00 AM

She's still young enough I'm not willing to say what her future holds.

However if she has any sense at all her future won't involve running for President in 2012. I think she tried to rise too high too fast. If she still wants bigger things she needs to bide her time, learn, hit the circuit, etc. FDR is the only failed running-mate I can think of to be President and I think that happened 12 years after he ran as VP. She should maybe take a similar amount of time.

Can I say definitively I wouldn't vote for her in 2020? No, I can't. 2012? Yeah there I can definitively say no pretty easy.

Geoff G.
July 6, 2009 4:47 AM

If it came down to a choice between Huckabee and Palin, I'd choose Huckabee in a heartbeat. I've seen him articulate his views, sometimes in unfriendly forums (he's been Jon Stewart's guest twice and impressed on both occasions; on both occasions he clearly and articulately defended his principles on social issues in a very impressive manner).

That having been said, it's hard to see how either one of them helps reunite the Republican base. The small but vocal libertarian wing doesn't really care for either one, and fiscal conservatives have problems with the economic policies of both. Huckabee is probably the closest thing to an economic populist in the Republican party, while Palin has a record of taking government handouts (she supported the "Bridge to Nowhere" and Alaska has the highest per-capita federal earmark spending in the nation, not to mention the windfall tax on oil companies)

Nomination of either one of them could spell real problems for the party. Unfortunately, it's hard to see who else is out there. Romney has the same problem in reverse (he can run as a good money manager but has an unclear record on LGBT rights, something that comes as a social conservative for statewide office is a non-starter; there's also the LDS issue, although that may be receding in importance).

It's hard to see who's out there who can successfully unite the party. Newt Gingrich (as has been pointed out on this blog) has baggage of his own when it comes to his marital relations. Who else is there at this point? I don't really see anyone in the Republican field who can get all of the major parts of the traditional Republican coalition excited the way Bush 43 could.

It's still early yet, and someone else could still step up (Jindal maybe? I doubt one speech will sink him forever.) But right now the field is looking pretty bleak on the Republican side.

Arrrrghhh
July 6, 2009 6:13 AM

Well, Rod... Your insistence that Palin isn't viable as president, pretty much seals it for me. I've not been a particular advocate of her being president, but, sometimes, you just have to know people by who their enemies are. Given the caliber of Palin's enemies... She is not just qualified, but would be the most outstandingly good president in history.

From the whiney elites, to the desperate lefties, to the liars in the media, all of whom just explode in completely unprovoked rage at her... That's all I need to know. They are all the most incompetent, useless, ignorant, and stupid people on the planet. What they hate HAS to be good, and not just "good", but a whole universe of "good" beyond their petty and mindless drivel.

And yeah, I'm pretty much anti-elite. You see, we've listened to them for... well... That's how we've all but destroyed the country. Reckless taxation, regulation, spending, laws, incomprehensibly stupid foreign policy... All flows from the "elites" in DC. Every day I meet people with better judgement, more capability, more competence than these people have shown in DC in, well, more than my lifetime.

Frankly, give me some farmers, loggers, miners, ranchers, mechanics, nurses, doctors, plumbers, fishermen, cowboys and a couple of teachers tossed in just for the color, and put them in office. They could actually get things back on track. I mean, they do that kind of stuff every day. They're actually COMPETENT. Not just blowhards.

I can't imagine how you say Palin is unqualified. Look what every pol you advocate is saying and doing. More of the abject mindless stupidity flowing out of Congress and the White House. Our currency is collapsing and they're borrowing trillions at ever higher rates. A half million to a million a month are losing jobs, and they vote to enact a massive tax.

Honduras follows its Constitution, which absolutely prevents anyone from being another Chavez and just taking over... and our government turns on them with fury.

Iran is ever so close to toppling the regime of tyrants and thugs and our "leadership" can't bring itself to give the people a hand. Not even symbolically.

Our tax burden has all but killed any chance of job creation. Yet, raising taxes and massive mandates on employers is being "sold" as "fixing our economy". We're going to fund "health care" by taxing "health care". 10 year olds shriek in merriment at the stupidity of the concept. Tell them that these "taxes" will "reduce the cost" of health care, and they wet their pants laughing, as if it were some alternate reality funnier than any comedy or cartoon ever seen.

Dave Ramsey holds a town hall for hope, and explains to the people how to be financially sensible in a weak economy. It takes him 10 minutes to fully explain what needs to happen and why. Yet, the "elite" in Washington can't grasp it. But us ordinary schmucks can.

Oh, and so can Palin.

So, when you say that she's not qualified to be president, and not "presidential" material, the only thing it can mean, is that she's not dumb enough.

Because, by George, I'm better and more capable of being a GOOD president and making GOOD decisions than EVERY Democrat and 99% of the GOP who's considered the run. Stuff they can't seem to grasp, that's simple and easy to understand is just so frustrating. Maybe it's becuase they chose to live an echo chamber, where intelligent thought never intrudes, and all they hear is the droning of the "elites" with thier mindless and worthless theories.

We, the ordinary and competent people, who run businesses, run our own lives, and conduct the real work of the country, making every aspect of it actually work - unlike the obstructionists in DC who can do nothing but harm us - are sick and tired of the nonsense. Oh, yeah, we're aware of the incompetents among us, but they've always been there. We're just not quite sure how, in the last 200 years, they went from being the village idiots we indulgently cared for, to the government that now demands we obey them, and let them run large segments of our lives for us.

Frankly, the inmates are running the asylum. And I don't care if you call them the "elites" or the "experienced" or the "proven" or whatever. All I know, is that they HAVE GOT TO GO. My apologies to the posters here who actually think we have a competent administration. I can only feel sorry for how you're going to feel when you finally recognize the truth.

So, when you say that Palin's not qualified... Who is? If that answer includes ANY insider in DC... BZZZZT!!!! stupid answer. They are the sum total of all that's wrong.

Not only is Palin distinctly qualified for presidency, we need a lot more like her. You know, people who ran their own lives with sense and sensibility and when arriving in DC would govern the same.

Now, if you want to argue something different... that Palin can't get elected, because she's not a great campaigner... Well, that's not so certain. Better than McCain.

I see blog after blog, column after column, lamenting the fact that there seems to be no sensible politicians to champion for office. Duhh. Read that 50 times and maybe the truth will start to sink in. There aren't. The whole political environment has become toxic. It is time to reach outside it. And you're going to have to suffer the indignity of having common men govern. Frankly, our lives depend on it happening and happening REAL soon.

So, while they might not make fantastic policy speeches, and they might not write harvardesque papers on your favorite social and cultural topics... We really don't need any of those right now. We just need people who can make some basic decisions that make an iota of sense. Because right now, not a single elite seems capable of ANYTHING remotely resembling sense.

Jon
July 6, 2009 6:51 AM

Re: Any U of Michigan alumni remember Preacher Mike on the diag?

Yep! But he didn't just preach, he debated. I never really gave him much attention so I don't have any Preacher Mike tales to tell. But I do recall one morning when some fire-breathing, brimstone-preaching guys showed up on campus shouting at us that we were all going straight to Hell. One guy yelled back, "Nah, I'm going to calculus and that's worse!"

Re: Our tax burden has all but killed any chance of job creation.

Federal taxes are lower than when Ronald Reagan was president.Good grief.

Joel
July 6, 2009 7:09 AM

If folks like Hannity, they'll vote for Newt. You might see Newt, Mitt, Mike and Sarah divide the right vote and open the way for another awful liberal like McCain to win.

public defender
July 6, 2009 7:40 AM

The Democrats were finally smart enough to nominate a liberal Ronald Reagan, it's funny that the Republicans seem to be rallying around a conservative version of Jesse Jackson. Palin isn't stupid. Neither is Jackson. But both have a knack for using narrow appeals to rally the base, tick off everyone else, and enrich themselves in the process.

To paraphrase a National Review cover from five (nine?) years ago, "Please Nominate this Woman!"

Your Name
July 6, 2009 8:09 AM

Charles Cosimano July 5, 2009 11:03 PM Well, predicting anything from this far out is foolish but a good guess is that unless Obama really screws up and does a Jimmy Carter, there is no social/religious conservative that could win against him in any event.

"unless"? The O-bot passed "unless" a few months ago.

freelunch
July 6, 2009 8:44 AM

Re: Our tax burden has all but killed any chance of job creation.

Federal taxes are lower than when Ronald Reagan was president.Good grief.

The tax propagandists don't care a thing about reality. Remember that Norquist has said that he wants to destroy government completely. Sadly, George Herbert Walker Bush was absolutely correct in his declaration that Reagan and the Republicans who nominated him had embraced voodoo economics. Even he did for a while and he was turned on with a vengence after he allowed reality to intervene.

Milton Friedman is still right. The tax burden is what is spent and the Republicans who have been whining about taxes have been talking a good game about spending, but then allowed spending to grow unchecked. No one can believe anything the Republicans say about spending.

Palin was governor of a state that has huge federal subsidies and huge taxes on extraction industries. Anyone can manage a balanced budget up there, particularly if they don't mind having the highest per capita spending in the country. Huckabee made good decisions in Arkansas without having hugely increasing revenues to make things simple.

freelunch
July 6, 2009 8:52 AM

Joel,

When the Democrats refuse to consider moderates they lose. When the Republicans refuse to consider moderates they lose. No, Reagan wasn't a conservative. He always governed as a moderate.

McCain is not a liberal by any rational definition, but if you insist on having a kill-the-government conservative don't forget that every Democrat in the country will be cheering for you because they know that making the Republican Party smaller and more ideologically pure is the best thing that conservatives can do to make sure they are never in power again.

Looselycult
July 6, 2009 9:14 AM


"The young men were likely taught growing up that signs that their message was effective would be people rejecting and "persecuting" them.

The more they were loathed and despised the more they knew their preaching was "convicting sinners" of their "sin".

I was taught growing up that the more resistance and negative consequences I received exercising the beliefs I was raised with the surer I could be I was doing the right thing.

Mt 5:10-11

Probably what keeps the Westboro Baptist church going too sigh."

Zoetius: I hear and understand what your saying but I think there is a big difference between the "Offence of the Gospel Of Jesus Christ" and just being plain offensive, and I think that's what these guys on Rod's campus and Westboro were, just plain offensive.

Ralph Wiggum
July 6, 2009 9:27 AM

"Given the caliber of Palin's enemies... She is not just qualified, but would be the most outstandingly good president in history."


That's priceless. I guess that means the Obama is going to be the bestest of the bestest cause the enemies and accusations that he's experienced are twenty times what Palin has felt. All you have to do is listen to talk radio.

Al-Dhariyat
July 6, 2009 9:30 AM

Let me just say that Bobby Jindal also has a long ways to go to be a viable candidate for the Presidency. The response that he delivered Obama's first major speech as President was soporific and elementary. As a South Asian-American, I was embarassed. FWIW, we may not be a large group but he has no support among South Asians.

Jindal may be doing well for Louisiana but I just hope that he works on his speechifying before stepping out lest he be slapped back to the Bayou like Palin.

Brett R.
July 6, 2009 9:32 AM

If only Meghan McCain would be old enough by 2012...

Badger
July 6, 2009 9:58 AM

I'm not sure Huckabee could stop her. It's like asking people if they would take Islam if they couldn't have Christianity. Logically any good reason to support Palin went away many, many moons ago with those dragon slayers Katie Couric and Charles Gibson. That all said, unless she could pull Michigan she will be dismissed a cult candidate like Huckabee was.

Simon
July 6, 2009 10:53 AM

predicting anything from this far out is foolish but a good guess is that unless Obama really screws up and does a Jimmy Carter, there is no social/religious conservative that could win against him in any event.

You don't need the social/religious qualifier in there, Charles. Basic rule of presidential politics is that the re-election campaign is a referendum on the incumbent. If Obama's approval rating is above 50%, he wins handily against anyone.

Only if the President is south of 50% does the quality of the opposition candidate really matter. In that case the President can still be reelected if the out-party puts up an especially weak candidate (see, Kerry, John).

Looselycult
July 6, 2009 10:54 AM

Rod wrote, "Of course there really are elites who are driven berserk by Palin, and who do have an inexplicable obsession with tearing this woman down."

Pot, meet Kettle.

Oh please Kirk! just because Rod has a legitimate complaint about Palin doesn't mean he is calling the kettle black. He is merely pointing out specific empirically verifiable defects in how Palin uses her public persona without demonizing her completely. At least not to the point that much of the media elites do. I am so sick of this "If your not with us your against us” cronyistic Rushbo speech. I'm beginning to wonder if there is such a thing as culturally conservative critical analysis without an over-simplified reductionistic and narrow minded compartmentalization that characterizes so many of the Palin zombies and Ditto-Bots that loiter around these com boxes. It's a sure sign of the frustrated desperation that characterizes so much of the ant-intellectual culturally conservative sheep that depend on Talk radio to teach them how to put their pants on and zip their fly.

colinashley
July 6, 2009 10:56 AM

@Serr8d
"It's going to take a populist who can polarize a lot of moderates, and a general feeling of sick-of-Obama to have a chance. That, my friends, is Sarah Palin."

I think the word you were looking for is "galvanize" not "polarize" :) You were actually right the first time!

Huckabee is clearly the man to lead the Republican party to victory in 2012. He is leading all the recent polls and has the highest favorables among independents.

Voter
July 6, 2009 10:58 AM

Two separate points:

First point: If Obama is doing well, or even holding his own, he would win against any republican (especially Sarah Palin), except possibly Mike Huckabee, who can challenge him on charisma, eloquence and style.

Second point: If Obama is doing poorly, voters will be reminded how ineffective and foolish it was to vote for a candidate with such little experience. The last thing they will do is replace him (who would now have four years as president under his belt) with a candidate who quit after 2.5 years as governor. In that scenario, experience will most definitely count -- and Mike Huckabee, with 10.5 years as governor -- has the most on the republican end.

Simon
July 6, 2009 11:13 AM

Don't fall into the trap of thinking that the last election's primary also-rans are the strongest candidates this time around. It usually doesn't work that way:

-- Dukakis beat a bunch of mediocre Dems ("The Seven Dwarfs") in the '88 primaries. None of them factored in the 1992 primaries.

-- Pat Buchanan was the runner up to President George H.W. Bush in the '92 primaries. He did win New Hampshire in '96 but never seriously challenged Dole for the nomination after that.

-- Steve Forbes was the darling of lots of conservatives in the weak '96 GOP primary field. Not a factor in 2000.

-- Bill Bradley, received fawning press coverage throughout his entire career and was the runner-up to Al Gore in 2000. Didn't run in '04 and would have flamed out if he did.

-- John Edwards was the runner-up to Kerry in 2004 and even got the VP nomination. Got nowhere in the '08 primaries.

Because everyone in politics understood the GOP's weakness going into 2008, the 2008 GOP primary candidates made up an extraordinarily weak field. Every one of them -- Romney, McCain, Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson -- has serious liabilities as a national candidate. Sarah Palin added some spark to the McCain ticket, but her erratic behavior and failure to live up to her original image as an independent-thinking conservative have permanently damaged her as a national candidate.

In 2008 we'll see a very different crop of GOP candidates. Huckabee and Romney may run again, but they won't necessarily get the same level of support they got last time. The serious players are likely to be people most pundits either aren't talking about at all now or aren't paying much attention to.

Looselycult
July 6, 2009 11:35 AM

Whoever they are unless Obama really screws up bad we won't see a viable GOP victory until possibly after Obama's 2nd term and by then he/she will probably be pro-choice and pro gay marriage (if it isn't already law by then) with the only major difference in with the candidate being more fiscally conservative. Mark my words that's what it will come to. We no are longer living in Jerusalem my friends but in Babylon. Get used to it and move on with your life.

silver
July 6, 2009 11:41 AM

Arrrrghhh said:
"Because, by George, I'm better and more capable of being a GOOD president and making GOOD decisions than EVERY Democrat and 99% of the GOP who's considered the run"

And gosh darnit, people like me.

Geoff G.
July 6, 2009 12:25 PM

Simon, I'm curious: do you have any thoughts on who some of the up-and-comers might be?

Personally, I have to say that I have heard Gov. Jindal speak on other occasions besides his January speech (where he apparently got some horrendous advice) and he seemed quite good. From what I've read, his record in Louisiana has been pretty good too. Perhaps Rod has some more insights on him, seeing as he's governing Rod's home state.

Anyone else spring to mind? Charlie Crist perhaps? Pawlenty? Anyone in Congress look viable right now?

Arrrrghhh
July 6, 2009 12:44 PM

freelunch
July 6, 2009 8:44 AM

Re: Our tax burden has all but killed any chance of job creation.

Federal taxes are lower than when Ronald Reagan was president.Good grief.
===============

Our tax burden has all but killed any chance of job creation. Got it yet? Or do you live in fantasy land, where cherry picked trivia are all you have? Have you added up all the state and STEALTH TAXES that have come along, in the form of mandates, and overregulation? Of course not. YOu have an agenda, one of "transfer as much wealth as possible to the public sector, it's a moral duty".

================

The tax propagandists don't care a thing about reality. Remember that Norquist has said that he wants to destroy government completely. Sadly, George Herbert Walker Bush was absolutely correct in his declaration that Reagan and the Republicans who nominated him had embraced voodoo economics. Even he did for a while and he was turned on with a vengence after he allowed reality to intervene.

=================

Yeah... I'm a "propagandist". Why, I'm just some ignorant twit who runs a business and notes the burden that literally drowns you when you hire someone. That makes me a propagandist becuase I know it first hand. People such as you, well, you know better than me, becuase you're not a greedy businessman.

=================

Milton Friedman is still right. The tax burden is what is spent and the Republicans who have been whining about taxes have been talking a good game about spending, but then allowed spending to grow unchecked. No one can believe anything the Republicans say about spending.

=================

It's just a political game to you, isn't it?

True? / Not true? You don't care. Rhetorical argumentative wins is all you care about. To me, it's my paycheck, my retirement, my means of having a home and 3 squares a day, and that of those who depend on it due to employment as well. For me, for them, for those who don't have a job, it's not about rhetorical or verbal sleights of hand using trivia or arguing about definitions. For me and them, it's just plain old math, which you can't fudge. When the balance in the bank reaches zero, all the fancy dodges and narrow definitions and redefinitions of terminology in the world, and even blaming the GOP for compromising with Democrats won't add a single dollar to the balance.

But then, I suspect all you have is an agenda to hate a political party, and that agenda is so overwhelming that it won't let you deal in reality.
=======================

Palin was governor of a state that has huge federal subsidies and huge taxes on extraction industries. Anyone can manage a balanced budget up there, particularly if they don't mind having the highest per capita spending in the country. Huckabee made good decisions in Arkansas without having hugely increasing revenues to make things simple

=======================

All sound and fury... and no substance at all. You first argued against the notion that we're overtaxed, and then suddenly you argue that Arkansas not raising taxes is a virtue. You dizzy yet?

I note that didn't cite any actual information relevant. You know, like, did Palin enforce fiscal restraint? Did Alaska, under her, splurge on lots of new spending programs when the income jumped? And did she then have to raise taxes to keep paying for them when the income fell?

Why no, you didn't address anything like that. You just used trivial noise to obscure the whole thing.

Arrrrghhh
July 6, 2009 12:58 PM

Rod:
Even so, unless Bobby Jindal or Mike Huckabee choose to run in 2012 -- and I think it would be foolish for Jindal to do so at this point -- it's hard to see who's going to carry the social and religious conservative banner.
=====================

I'm curious as to why you think that presidential politics would be the place to invest your efforts in regards to social and religious conservatism?

We don't elect popes to govern.

Politics has yet to be 'clean' enough in any era of human existence, to be able to RAISE our standards of social, moral, or cultural being.

There are only two places that actually happens, and bucks our general downward slide... Home and church.

freelunch
July 6, 2009 2:34 PM

Arrrrghhh -

It's not a political game, that's why I'm not willing to let the anti-tax activists keep repeating their falsehoods without pointing out that they are repeating falsehoods, that they know they are falsehoods.

It was Palin who could make silly pronouncements about taxes, because as governor she was in the position of a child with a huge trust fund who never had to worry about where the money was coming from. Huckabee had to raise taxes because he didn't have huge oil taxes and federal subsidies to fall back on. His tax increases and social spending angered the folks like the Club for Growth who don't want government to work at all and would rather see the poor die than spend money on them.

Simon
July 6, 2009 2:37 PM

Simon, I'm curious: do you have any thoughts on who some of the up-and-comers might be?

Geoff, my predictions aren't any better than anyone else's. But back in 2005, nobody outside of Arkansas had heard of Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney was the ultimate longshot outsider, and Sarah Palin was an unknown mayor of a small town in Alaska. The political landscape will change radically over the next two and a half years. It always does.

My guess is Jindal won't run unless Obama's approval rating has dropped to near-Bush levels by early 2011, which is extremely unlikely.

Tim Pawlenty has the makings of a serious candidate. As does Haley Barbour, improbable as that may sound. There are also people not currently in politics -- ex-Governors, ex-Senators, military people, people who will be elected to their first statewide office in 2010 (Meg Whitman?).

By 2012, there's a better than even chance that most primary voters will consider Huckabee, Palin, and Romney yesterdays news.

Observer
July 6, 2009 3:50 PM

back in 2005, nobody outside of Arkansas had heard of Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney was the ultimate longshot outsider, and Sarah Palin was an unknown mayor of a small town in Alaska

No changes here yet.

freelunch
July 6, 2009 4:01 PM

Simon,

I don't expect Jindal to run in 2012, either, but I'm wondering whether you think that he as a Catholic can get the votes of the religious conservatives whenever he runs. No doubt there will be some confusion about his religion because of his Indian heritage, but even if that is cleared up, will we see the core of the religious conservatives willing to vote for a Catholic in the primaries?

Simon
July 6, 2009 4:23 PM

even if that is cleared up, will we see the core of the religious conservatives willing to vote for a Catholic in the primaries?

Sure - it's been over a generation since that has been a serious issue among evangelicals. I can't think of a single politically influential figure from the evangelical world who would oppose a socially conservative Catholic on religious grounds.

Jindal personally may have an issue here, however, because some of his writings at the time of his conversion to Catholicism had an anti-Protestant tone. On the other hand, Democrats pushed that issue hard in the gubernatorial race without any appreciable impact.

Romney's Mormonism is different, because (a) Mormonism claims to be Christian but holds beliefs that evangelicals (and most other Christians) consider clearly outside the boundaries of Christianity, and (b) as a practical matter, Mormonism appeals mostly to white Americans of Anglo-Protestant ancestry, which means that evangelicals encounter them all the time. I think a lot of Christians (not just evangelicals) have concerns that electing an LDS President would provide a cultural validation to Mormonism that they don't want.

Reaganite Republican
July 6, 2009 7:58 PM
http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com

What I'm thinking is that Palin’s move puts yet more pressure on Obama to finally get some results, as the soaring rhetoric isn’t hypnotizing the plebes like it used to.

Last week Helen Thomas, Colin Powell, and Warren Buffet all turned on him. Polls are looking droopy for The One lately.

And Obama’s porkulus program is a train wreck, all it’s done is bump interest rates and tank the dollar. We are being laughed at by bad guys like Tehran, Pyongyang, and Al Qaida who amazingly turned-down Barack’s friend-requests.

Palin could trounce him in 2012, when Americans would vote for the Gipper-in-Heels in droves- while begging for lower taxes, free enterpise, a defense posture with some backbone… an end to the radical, anti-American nightmare we’ve got now.

Go get ‘em Sarah-

http://reaganiterepublicanresistance.blogspot.com

pentamom
July 6, 2009 9:26 PM

"I'm curious as to why you think that presidential politics would be the place to invest your efforts in regards to social and religious conservatism?"

I'm thinking Rod doesn't mean that someone needs to lead social and religious political conservatism by running for office, but that at least in recent history, there's always been someone running for office who attracts the socially and religiously cultural vote, and so that it's likely that there will be someone to "carry that banner" again in the next election.

Like anything, a candidate representing a particular constituency doesn't have to mean that that constituency invest all its hopes in politics, but that politics is one of its concerns and it looks for a candidate to represent it.

QuoVadisAnima
July 7, 2009 1:19 AM

Huckabee's the only candidate whose popularity has been growing since the 2008 primaries. He's the total package - he's witty & articulate plus he has a well established executive track record of getting things done with an extremely partisan legislature. He is a social, fiscal & national defense conservative - he is a Reagan Republican. This is exactly what our country needs right now.

(And the GOP needs to recognize that you can't add to your numbers by subtracting - they need Reagan's coalition)

Those who accuse Huckabee of fiscal liberalism need to exercise a little due diligence (& independent thought). Spending money on infra-structure & responsibly improving education & healthcare is fiscal prudence. Which is why he walked into the AR governorship with a huge deficit -- and left office with a substantial $844 million surplus.

People need to stop equating fiscal conservatism with the refusal to spend money and recognize it more appropriately as only using our tax dollars prudently...

David Shedlock
July 7, 2009 7:09 AM

I welcome a Palin/Huckabee fight to the finish and may the best man win! Seriously, either one is conservative enough and I'd generally be rooting for Huckabee. But what we don't have to worry about is that the vote will be split allowing Romney to move in. That is not going to happen. He is not trusted by any on the right except the talk show hosts. Otherwise, look for him to turn even further to the left to separate himself from Pal/Huck. He can't compete so he will stake out claims to the left of both (where his heart is!).


But this time the center-right Republicans (as Mitt-loving Hugh Hewitt calls himself) will mostly be looking for a winner, not McCain II. I also believe that each of them could do the party good if they can avoid the sharp-tongue we know both of them are capable of (they are as fallen as the rest of us, I am afraid). Palin will have to avoid the temptation to court the talk-show hosts by calling Huckabee a lib, and Huckabee ought to avoid attacking her personally altogether

Your Name
July 7, 2009 12:38 PM

"people who are non-religious like Mike Huckabee"

To use your newest expression - vom! I'm not religious and I think anyone who compares consenting adult gay relationships to pedophilia/child-molestation or bestiality is an asshat (to use another of your 'famous' sayings), not to mention a not-very-nice human being.

Your Name
July 7, 2009 12:45 PM

And Charlie Crist is a well-known (not-so)closet(ed) case -likes the bois, so he's a goner in religionland.

QuoVadisAnima
July 7, 2009 6:04 PM

@Your Name,

Context is key & given the fact that the polygamists & polyamorists are already moving on the heels of the same-sex crowd - and that the authors of the recent "hate crimes" bill refused to explicitly exclude pederasty & pedophilia from its protection - I would say that Huckabee & Santorum & all those who were warning of this very thing were being prophetic rather than bigoted.

It is possible to have no problem with homosexuals per se & still not want to have the foundational structures of society overturned. It is even possible to 'hate the sin & love the sinner'. Disagreeing with someone's lifestyle & personal choices does not make one a bigot.

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About Crunchy Con

Rod Dreher is an editorial columnist for the Dallas Morning News, and author of "Crunchy Cons" (Crown Forum), a nonfiction book about conservatives, most of them religious, whose faith and political convictions sometimes put them at odds with mainstream conservatives. The views expressed in this blog are his own.

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