The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA), the nation's largest Lutheran body, has voted to accept the ordination and ministry of partnered homosexuals. What next for the ELCA? I see three possibilities:
1. A significant number of conservatives will depart, accelerating the steady membership decline of the mainline Protestant denomination -- which, according to its own record-keeping, has lost 10 percent of its membership since 1987. This is a dying church, not a growing church, and this departure from Scripture and tradition will only make things worse.2. Many conservatives may depart, making the short term situation worse, but the ELCA is on the right side of history. Younger people are dramatically more accepting than their elders of same-sex marriage. As these people age, start families, and go looking for a church, they're going to want to affiliate with a church that accepts gays fully. There will the ELCA be. Long-term, these Lutherans will benefit from their decision.
3. Many conservatives will depart, further weakening the declining denomination. But those who remain and who anticipate a rebound because of demographic eventualities will be disappointed, but not because conservatives will post absolute gains in membership. Rather, overall church attendance will continue to decline slowly as more Americans identify as secular. America will track the European model somewhat: conservative churches/denominations will prosper relative to liberal ones, because they offer a clear alternative to mainstream culture. In other words, the Christians who stay active in churches will tend to be those who are more highly motivated to affiliate with churches that offer a clear alternative -- but overall, secularization will continue steadily, with fewer Americans interested in church at all, and the gay-clergy decision won't have proved to have mattered much in the overall scheme of things.
Can you think of any other clear alternatives? What's the case?
My guess is that the answer is No. 3. As you think about this, consider how much your prediction depends on what you want to happen, as opposed to what you think actually will happen. I would prefer to believe that the traditionalists will flourish because of their stance, but given the way American society is changing, I don't think that's going to happen.
Once again, let me exhort readers to commit themselves to discussing this as dispassionately as possible. I'm going to delete name-calling, inflammatory language and suchlike from the thread.

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"What does the Word teach? There's no agreement on that and never has been, and what it was once thought to teach is apparently (we now think) not what it teaches. "
The Word (TM) often contradicts itself too. So many versions and translations to pick and choose from. So many verses that are themselves contradicted elsewhere in The Word (TM).
What ever happened to 'You go to your Church and I'll go to mine (if at all).'?
We aren't discussing if gay people should be allowed in church. We are talking about them leading the church! This is no different than someone who is cheating on their spouse leading us in church. It should not happen. Gay people should go to church..and hopefully they can learn about God's love and the better plan God has for them and choose it. When did we decide to be of the world (and what is popular social niceness) not in it.
The question was not if we should allow gays in church. The question is if one should lead us! This should not be allowed. This is no different than someone committing adultery, or a "committed" bi-sexual, or anything else that is considered sexually immoral to be allowed to lead the church. Considered immoral by the Bible and God's word, not popular culture. Gay people should go to church and listen to God's word and hopefully they will discover God's love and choose his greater plan for their life.
Regardless of what one considers sinful, those who should lead in Christian church's has always and will continue to be based upon one's giftedness and perceived sense of call by both God and those to whom that person ministers. Gluttony is considered a sin or is, at least, listed alongside others in lists of sins in the Scriptures. When was the last time you heard of anyone crying out that gluttons shouldn't be permitted to teach or lead in church? "begood's" post seems to give way too much weight to sexual sin versus any other sin - and we all have them, those called to clergy type ministry and otherwise. Such preoccupation with things sexual is a sign of our time. We need to move on and let folks work out their own salvation with fear and trembling - and therein deliberate about what sin of theirs needs the most attention and forgiveness.
Where are the ELCA Lutherans going? Unfortunately, further and further away from anything which resembles Lutheranism or Christianity. Some in the ELCA are actually leaving the ELCA thanks to the 2009 Churchwide Assembly (CWA)--one example is the group "Lutheran CORE" which you might just want to Google. They're not as mainstream as the Lutheran Church--Missouri Synod (LCMS). Lutheran CORE is still somewhat theologically liberal, but not nearly as far afield as where the ELCA has taken itself. See also LCMC and ELCM. Yes, individual congregant members have left their ELCA churches, but whole congregations are leaving / have left, and others are on their way. And no, it's not merely about what one believes about homosexuality and the ministry--that's only the tip of the iceburg. Ultimately, it reveals ELCA's doctrinal shift away from Sola Scriptura (Scripture Alone), and tolerating heresy and near-orthodoxy all under the same big tent (read: toleration). Unfortunately ELCA departs from Biblical Christianity with an "Agree to Disagree" approach to Christian Doctrine. In my opinion, Martin Luther himself would not recognise their teaching and confession as even remotely "Lutheran." See Luther and Zwingli in the Marburg Collequy and cf. with ELCA's full communion partners, especially sacramentally. Anyone may choose to call himself or herself a "Lutheran" for any reason at all, but accepting the title does not make it so. For a better understanding of what it means to be Lutheran, see the book CONCORDIA: The Lutheran Confessions (CPH) or The Book of Concord (Tappert) (Augsburg Fortress publishing) or Concordia Triglotta (CPH reprinted by Northwestern Publishing House, Milwaukee), or some other edition of the Lutheran Confessions. Words have definate, agreed upon meanings, and "Lutheran" is one of them. Lutheranism is not Luther-centric, but rather Christocentric. It is not about green jell-o and smorgaboards and Ole and Lena jokes--it is all about God's great amazing grace shown to us undeserving humans. We may repent and find full forgiveness in the one true God through the once-for-all sacrifice of Messiah Jesus: the Suffering Servant suffered in our place. To God alone be the glory!
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