Only 20 percent claim to be Republican

This concern combines with a profound sense of collective identity. In our conversations, it was striking how these voters constantly characterized themselves as part of a group of individuals who share a set of beliefs, a unique knowledge, and a commitment of opposition to Obama that sets them apart from the majority of the country. They readily identify themselves as a minority in this country - a minority whose values are mocked and attacked by a liberal media and class of elites. They also believe they possess a level of knowledge and understanding when it comes to politics and current events, one gained from a rejection of the mainstream media and an embrace of conservative media and pundits such as Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, which sets them apart even more. Further, they believe this position leaves them with a responsibility to spread the word, to educate those who do not share their insights, and to take back the country that they love. Their faith in this country and its ideals leave them confident that their numbers will grow, and that they will ultimately defeat Barack Obama and the shadowy forces driving his hidden agenda.

And yet remarkably, these voters had virtually nothing positive to say about the Republican Party. They see their own party as weak, old, and out of touch. They feel it has lost sight of conservative values and conservative voters and is in desperate need of new leadership. They identified a clear disconnect between 'the people' and 'the politicians,' which poses a growing threat to the party's ability to challenge Democratic control in Washington. While they continue to defend George W. Bush personally, his presidency is an embarrassment to them and represents the culmination of a creeping betrayal of conservative values that started with the election of his father more than 20 years ago. The lionization of Ronald Reagan in these groups was as strong as we have seen for any political figure, as was the desperate desire for a new Reaganesque figure to lead them out of their current wilderness.

Looking at the current political debate, it was evident in our focus group discussions that the divide between conservative Republicans and even the most conservative-leaning independents remains very, very wide. Independents like those in our suburban Cleveland groups harbor doubts about Obama's health care reform but are desperate to see some version of health care reform pass this year; the conservative Republicans view any health care reform as a victory for Obama and are militantly opposed. Asked about the issues of greatest importance to them in choosing a candidate for Congress, health care ranked sixth among the Republicans, below issues such as tax cuts, immigration, and a candidate's personal values and faith; but for the independents, health care was number one.

The language they use further reflects this divide. Conservative Republicans fully embrace the 'socialism' attacks on Obama and believe it is the best, most accurate way to describe him and his agenda. Independents largely dismiss these attacks as partisan rhetoric detracting from a legitimate debate about what many of them do see as excessive government control and spending.

You've really got to read the whole analysis. This is absolutely true, in my experience:

The notion of a liberal media using its reach and power to advance a radical agenda is a given for these voters. If you do not see and understand this reality, you are not a part of their collective group and you cannot possibly understand the current political environment in our country. This creates an almost siege-like mentality, in which these conservative Republicans are always on the defensive, at all times looking for any slight against them and their beliefs and seeking to link it back to a broader effort rooted in the liberal media.

I can't tell you the number of times I've found myself in conversation, either face to face or in e-mail, with a partisan conservative who literally cannot accept what I'm saying. I mean, they literally think I'm lying to them when I give my opinion about something political, and believe that the only people one should listen to are people who already share their exclusive and somewhat paranoid worldview. This is what I think Mark Thompson and Freddie de Boer don't get when they criticize conservative dissidents for not leading the GOP base. The GOP base doesn't want to be led by people who don't agree with them 100 percent. They don't even want to listen.

Here's the Carville-Greenberg conclusion:

The independent voters in our groups clearly viewed these issues very, very differently. They share the conservative Republicans' disdain for the current Republican Party, but their critique is not that the party has abandoned its conservative principles but instead that it advances the interests of the rich and big businesses at the expense of the middle class. They worry about the Democratic Party's proclivity to spend tax dollars and provide 'freebies' to those who do not do their fair share, but they appreciate the Democrats' focus on 'the little people' (among which they included themselves) and the fact that 'it's not all about the money.'

They view FOX News as another media outlet, decidedly conservative in its point of view but no more or less biased than any other media outlet; their assumption is that every outlet has a bias that reflects the interests of its own bottom line. FOX is no different, and certainly not a source of special insight and information that cannot be gained elsewhere. They generally laugh at conservative commentators such as Limbaugh ('overbearing,' 'egotistical,' 'idiot') and Beck (one man called him a 'crybaby'). When it comes to Sarah Palin, there was almost universal agreement that she could never be elected president, with most citing her inexperience and baggage as obstacles too great to overcome. But even more important to them, most felt she was ultimately driven by greed and ambition more than anything else and would rather use her newfound fame to enrich herself than improve the country.

All of which underscores how much the conservative Republicans are a world apart - with big consequences for the Republican Party.

By this standard, I guess I would qualify as an independent voter. Independents really are a world apart from the GOP base, because they are not as extreme, and crucially, not as dug in on their principles. They don't see politics in such apocalyptic, paranoid terms -- precisely the terms the base expects its allies to agree with, or to be counted as a fellow traveler with the socialist Obama. All this is a recipe for continued marginalization. Being the party of No To Obama will always be good for a certain number of votes, but you can't build an effective governing majority on it.