Ukraine: H1N1 outbreak, or something worse?

A longtime reader and commenter writes:

I'm writing to you in part because this sounds somewhat like something you'd be interested in, and in part because I'm a bit confused by the article I've attached below, which seems to be the only one I can find that makes any sense at all and at least appears to be from an actual news source, rather than a blog (albeit, it is a very obscure news source...).

Apparently there is a hemorrhagic fever spreading like wildfire in the Ukraine...but they are insisting it is only H1N1 flu and there are no international news reports? It is said to have started just over a week ago, but there are already 95 confirmed deaths, and over half a million infected. The tinfoil hat types are hyperventilating and saying that this is pneumonic plague, with the death toll underestimated by thousands.

Has anyone you know heard anything about this? I'm somewhat befuddled.

Here's the link.

Either this is a hoax, or blown way out of proportion, or a conspiracy of an unprecedented magnitude. And I am not a fan of conspiracy theories, so I'm voting for one of the first two.

Nevertheless, given that you are an actual journalist, perhaps you can shed some light on why there is not a breath of this in anything resembling mainstream media?

Well, I don't put credence in rumor sites. But the MSM reports that Ukraine does have a pretty serious H1N1 problem, but I can't find anything beyond that on a reputable journalism site. On the other hand, the science blog Recombinomics, which tracks news and information about viral pandemics, has some pretty alarming reports. Recomb doesn't repeat some conspiracy-blog claims that this is some sort of biological warfare experiment gone bad. Rather, it suggests that the H1N1 virus might have mutated in Ukraine into a deadlier version akin to the 1918 epidemic version, to which it's genetically similar. Excerpt from the Nov. 9 posting:

It has now been more than a week since samples from Ukraine were sent to the WHO regional lab, Mill Hill in London. Although comments have been made that at least 15 samples were H1N1 confirmed, and the sequences showed no large changes or resistance to oseltamivir, there have been no updates. The absence of additional information or release of sequences, increases concerns that small changes undergoing further analysis are causing delays.

In the days post shipment, cases in Ukraine have quadrupled to over 1 million and the reported fatalities have grown from 30 to 174. The clinical presentation of 90 of the fatalities was classical H1N1 linked hemorrhagic pneumonia, which led to the "total destruction" of both lungs. These fatal cases were hospitalized 3-7 days after disease onset, highlighting the rapid progression of the infection in a large number of patients, suggesting genetic changes in the H1N1 virus.

Although politicians and media reports continue to downplay the significance by citing a small number of lab confirmed cases or more traditional pneumonia deaths, the number of fatal hemorrhagic cases was unusually large. These deaths involve hemorrhagic pneumonia in previously health young adults.

Follow the latest reports on Recombinomics, which keeps a close eye on this stuff.

On the other hand, my personal and confidential Ukrainian source writes:

IT IS BOOOLLLSSHHHEEEEETTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Below is exact quote (well, polite quote...) from my brother-in-law who lives in Kiev:

"Such stupidity is difficult to find even in Ukraine itself....."

He goes on to speculate that there is Machiavellian national politics behind this, driving people to panic for political reasons. Plus, he said, Ukrainian health officials are "totally incompetent."