God-o-Meter

Obama's Catholic Problem In November

Monday April 14, 2008

Categories: Barack Obama

obama37.jpgNewsday rehashes the news about Obama's stepped-up efforts to win Catholics in light of Hillary Clinton's advantage among those voters, but adds the important point that this isn't just a primary season problem for Obama:

Catholics are among the most powerful swing voting blocs in American politics; they backed the winner in seven of the last eight presidential elections. And Obama's failure to connect with a majority of Catholics in the Democratic primaries is one of his campaign's biggest headaches - one that poses a major threat to his chances of winning heavily-Catholic Pennsylvania next week and the big prize in November, experts say.

"It's a big problem for him not just now but if he prevails and goes to the general election," said pollster Chris Borick, director of Pennsylvania's Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.

If Obama wins the nomination, Catholics will need to be an important part of his November coalition, given that they're exactly the kind of swing voters that John McCain will be gunning for. Check out this nifty chart from Adherents.com:

Top 10 U.S. States with Most Catholics, 1990

New York California Pennsylvania Illinois Texas New Jersey Massachusetts Michigan Ohio Florida

If Hillary Clinton takes Pennsylvania, she'll have won all those states but Illinois, Obama's home state. Regardless of whether his new Catholic outreach operation succeeds in narrowing Hillary Clinton's Pennsylvania lead, it will need to say active going into the fall if he takes the nomination.

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Comments
Brian Yates
April 15, 2008 3:03 PM

If Obama wants a shot at Catholics and other pro-life voters, he should co-sponsor the Pregnant Women's Support Act, Senate 2410. This bill is sponsored in the Senate by his endorser Bob Casey and in the House by more than 30 pro-life Democrats. It is intended to remove the pressures that push pregant women toward abortion. If Obama were to co-sponsor it, it would be a tangible example of his willingness to get beyond the stale boundaries of our current politics.

Brian Yates
www.democratsforlife/massachusetts.org

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The God-o-Meter (pronounced Gah-DOM-meter) scientifically measures factors such as rate of God-talk, effectiveness—saying God wants a capital gains tax cut doesn't guarantee a high rating—and other top-secret criteria (Actually, the adjustment criteria are here). Click a candidate's head to get his or her latest God-o-Meter reading and blog post. And check back often. With so much happening on the campaign trail, God-o-Meter is constantly recalibrating!

God-o-Meter blogger Dan Gilgoff is Beliefnet's Politics Editor. A former political correspondent for U.S. News & World Report, he is author of The Jesus Machine: How James Dobson, Focus on the Family, and Evangelical America are Winning the Culture War.

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