Obama lost big among Indiana Catholics last night, but not nearly as big as in Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Catholics were probably more responsible than any other voters in giving Hillary Clinton a second wind over the last month. Catholics accounted for one in five Hoosier voters, and they broke for Clinton 59 to 41, according to exit polls. Compare that to Pennsylvania, where Clinton took Catholics 69 to 31, or Ohio, where Clinton won them 63 to 36.
The Obama camp had focused intensely on Indiana Catholics, but God-o-Meter is unsure whether that’s responsible for his better showing among them. It’s just as likely that he performed better among Catholics for the same reasons he improved among other voters, for calling Clinton’s proposed summer gas tax holiday a political ploy and for denouncing Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama still has his work cut out among Catholics in the general election, but his modest improvements among them will help his campaign battle the argument that he’s unelectable, and unpopular among the white working class.
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posted May 7, 2008 at 12:00 pm
The fact is Obama improved among Catholics. In North Carolina, Obama nearly tied Clinton for Catholics, 48% for Obama, 51% for Clinton (http://elections.foxnews.com/north-carolina-democratic-exit-poll/). In Indiana, where many pundits had predicted Catholic margins for Hillary similar to those in Pennsylvania, Obama recorded 41% of the votes from Catholics, about a 10% improvement from his performance in Pennsylvania (http://elections.foxnews.com/indiana-democratic-exit-poll/). That 41% includes 42% of all Catholics who attend mass weekly or more often (a key demographic that many had argued was troublesome for Obama).
The fact remains, Hillary did well with white voters and voters whose incomes are below $50,000. I think that margin drives much of the margin she holds with Catholic voters, who are more likely white and largely middle-class.
In any case, Obama improved with Catholics and I look for him to continue that trend throughout the summer and fall as the negative attacks from Sen. Clinton end and voters get to know him as more than just a Jeremiah Wright congregant.
posted May 7, 2008 at 12:10 pm
I hear this NC argument and I laugh. Catholics are less than 8% of faith congregate in NC. Most that voted Dem are Northern transplants. The demographics are much different than Ohio and PA Catholics.
So Colin, you are so naive as to think McCain will not attack Obama with even harsher negative ads. We have not heard the last of Wright. Believe that.
Obama can not win the Catholic vote until he learns how to communicate to them. If he does not, John McCain will be President and the the dreamers who have put their blind faith into Obama will be responsible, just like the Nadar voters who left us with Bush.
posted May 7, 2008 at 1:31 pm
Anderson,
First, it is blindingly short-sighted to think that the way Obama has performed versus Clinton among Catholics tells us much about how he will perform in the general election. Remember, Anderson, in the context of the primaries, we’re talking strictly about Democratic voters and independents (in the states that allow anyone to vote in primaries). So yes, I do think that once the attacks about Rev. Wright from the Clinton campaign and its surrogates stop and Hillary formally endorses and gets behind Obama, the lion’s share of those Democratic voters will coalesce around Obama.
Democrats are energized for this election and no matter how it seems today, as the embers from the primary season are still hot, weeks from now the landscape will be entirely different.
Second, I think you mislead readers when you say “Obama can not win the Catholic vote until he learns how to communicate to them.” This argument assumes that Catholics are a single entity, a monolith, shopping for the same qualities in a candidate. Quite the contrary, Catholics come from many different threads of the social, economic, and racial fabric of America. To assume that they all respond to the same political stimuli in the same way is a mistake. On the other hand, I think that once this great quilt of Catholic voters gets to know Barack Obama, especially independents who have not focused as much on the primaries, and once they hear his message of unity and community, they will respond quite strongly.
posted May 11, 2008 at 9:11 pm
It’s a bit more than communication, Obama has a past history that goes against the grain of Catholic positions and beliefs. Simply put, Obama can not win practicing Catholic’s vote, especially not if he communicates his past votes on abortion and other areas of concern. More Democratic Catholics voted for Hillary Clinton because she is the candidate who is closer to Catholics in her views. McCain’s platform more closely aligns with core beliefs and concerns of Catholics.