Dan Gilgoff: November 2007 Archives

Who woulda thunk it? The woman whose presidential run has driven some Christian Right activists into the arms of Rudy Giuliani appeared yesterday at Rick Warren's Saddleback Church--and received a standing ovation. The occasion was Saddleback's annual Global Summit on AIDS and the Church, and while the Orange County Register reports that all the top-tier presidential candidates were invited, only Clinton showed up.

God-o-Meter noticed how Clinton repeatedly referred to the church community as "we":

“Twenty five years ago when people – mostly young gay men – started dying of an unnamed disease, we didn't talk about it in church,” she said. “We've come a long way. Not only can we talk about AIDS in church, but churches can lead the way.”

And why not? Clinton is, by all accounts, a devoted Methodist. Her appearance at Saddleback--and the language she used--were subtle, effective ways for her to tell religious Americans: I'm one of you. Judging from Clinton's ecstatic reception, however, many already know (though God-o-Meter must note that The Pew Research Center's polling tells a different story).

A new TV ad that begins airing in Iowa and New Hampshire this weekend showcases Mitt Romneys' past pro-choice views, further complicated his attempts to shore up conservative Christian support. Republican rivals Fred Thompson and Mike Huckabee have also stepped up their attempts to raise doubts about Romney's commitment to the pro-life cause. The new ad comes courtesy of the group Republican Majority for Choice

God-o-Meter is curious to see how this new round of attacks on Romney affect his poll numbers in early primary and caucus states. One of the biggest questions on GOM's mind these days centers on how firm Romney's support is among the decent-sized chunk of Christian conservatives he's managed to win over thus far.

Were you, like God-o-Meter, wondering why Mitt Romney appeared to be tripped up by a question about whether every word in the Bible is true during Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate? The New York Times Caucus Blog sheds some light on the answer.

First off, the exchange between Romney and debate host Anderson Cooper:

MR. ROMNEY: I believe the Bible is the word of God, absolutely. (Applause.) And I try to live by it as well as I can, but I miss in a lot of ways. But it’s a guide for my life and for hundreds of millions, billions of people around the world. I believe in the Bible.

MR. COOPER: Does that mean you believe every word?

MR. ROMNEY: You know — yeah, I believe it’s the word of God. The Bible is the word of God. I mean, I might interpret the word differently than you interpret the word, but I read the Bible and I believe the Bible is the word of God. I don’t disagree with the Bible. I try to live by it.

And The Times' explanation:

...[A]ll evangelicals place a high emphasis on the authority and trustworthiness of the Bible, even if they do not necessarily believe it is completely without error.

On the other hand, Mormons believe categorically that the Bible contains errors, so Mr. Romney may have tripped himself up when he blurted out that he did believe in every word.

Was Romney hinting at the distinct Mormon view of the Bible by saying he "might interpret the word differently than you interpret the word?" Or was he trying to curry favor with evangelical Christians by blurring the line between Mormon and evangelical theology, saying "the Bible is the word of God?" God-o-Meter will only say that if Romney is pursuing this later path, it's a dangerous one, threatening to upset both evangelicals and Mormons.

As outside pressure mounts on Mitt Romney to deliver a “Mormon speech” in the style of John F. Kennedy’s 1960 address on his Catholicism, the Romney campaign has reached an internal decision to delay such a speech at least until early next year, according to two campaign advisors.

“A lot of people were talking about doing it before Thanksgiving and the holidays, but then we moved up in the polls, including in South Carolina,” a senior Romney advisor tells Beliefnet. “So the thinking became that the timing [for a speech on religion] was not as rushed."

Romney advisors say an internal debate about whether the former Massachusetts governor needs to deliver a speech on his religion has been playing out inside his campaign for several weeks, mostly between evangelical Christian advisors who are pro-speech and non-Christian conservatives who see less of a need for one.

“It might be that a speech is more appropriate for late in the primaries or for the general election,” said another Romney advisor. “Frankly, this is going to be a question of polling; if we’re doing well in Iowa and New Hampshire, and [Romney’s Mormonism] is not coming up as a divisive issue, maybe we should just stay the course, since winning in those early states is key.”

“I came onto the campaign with great conviction that the speech needed to happen immediately,” said this second advisor. “Now, I’m a little more hesitant.”

Both advisors requested anonymity so that they could speak candidly about internal campaign deliberations.

“There are some mainstream Republican advisors who aren’t as sensitive to the fact that there is hesitation among evangelicals, and that a speech addressing faith and politics would be helpful,” says a senior Romney advisor. “Romney is a great communicator and could address the sensitivities in a way that would be productive for voters.”

But the anti-speech faction has won the debate at least for the time being, arguing that such an address could be given only once, and that the news environment is too cluttered for one speech to break through in a lasting way. But perhaps the strongest argument against the speech is Romney’s success in early primary and caucus state polls.

At the same time, a growing chorus of political pundits and Romney supporters are calling for a “Mormon speech.” Republican Senator Orrin Hatch of Utah, a Mormon and a Romney supporter, said this week that “There's a concern that [Romney’s] religious beliefs might interfere with serving all people.... He needs to put that problem to bed."

“All he needs to do is address it like JFK did,” Hatch said in an interview with the Associated Press.

But the pro-speech faction inside the Romney campaign believes his task is more complex, since the thrust of Kennedy’s speech was that his Catholicism would not interfere with his actions as president, while the Christian conservatives Romney is trying to appeal to want their president to be influenced by his faith. “Romney would be doing something different,” from JFK, said a campaign advisor. “He would be embracing his faith and saying ‘It’s part of me,’ so it would be a new angle.”

Mark DeMoss, a prominent evangelical public relations specialist who is doing outreach to conservative Christians on Romney’s behalf, said he wasn’t convinced that a “Mormon speech” was necessary. “I don’t think it’s critical that he do it, nor am I advising that he not do it,” DeMoss said. “The reason I think it’s not necessarily imperative that he do it is that he’s talked a lot about his faith. It’s a very visible part of his life and he’s been transparent about it.”

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee’s recent rise in the Iowa polls, due largely to his success consolidating evangelical support there, would seem to increase pressure on Romney to deliver the speech. But campaign advisors say Romney’s strategy is to resist going after single-minded Christian conservatives who are unlikely to stray from Huckabee. Rather, the Romney campaign will spend the next few weeks hitting Huckabee on other issues, like immigration and taxes, which it believes are near and dear to most Christian conservatives.

Given the choice between an evangelical who is right on some of the issues versus who is right on all the issues, I’d rather go with the Mormon,” said a Romney advisor.

According to an opposition document leaked to Beliefnet from a Romney advisor, the campaign will also attempt to paint Huckabee as being weak on terror, as pardoning too many violent criminals as Arkansas governor, and as a weak candidate due to lack of fundraising.

Mike Huckabee continues to rack up Christian Right endorsements. The latest comes from Jerry Falwell, Jr..

MNSBC's First Read has the details, including this:

Falwell was not expecting to endorse Huckabee today, but when put on the spot, he did. “He’s my choice, yes,” Falwell said to cheers from students and a smile from Huckabee. While Falwell called Huckabee his “close friend,” he also said Thompson would have been good choice.

On the one hand, God-o-Meter recognizes that Falwell is a household name, adding to impression that Huckabee has overcome viability doubts among evangelical cultural leaders. And with his dramatic surge in the Iowa polls, why not. But God-o-Meter also thinks it important to point out that many of the real organizational players in the Christian Right, like Focus on the Family's James Dobson and the Family Research Council's Tony Perkins, haven't jumped on board yet. Until that happens, GOM won't be fully convinced that the powerful infrastructure of the modern Christian right is truly behind the man from Hope.