I read an article on a Christian music website yesterday that listed trends in the industry for 2008. One of the trends was the use of digital over physical products, with some artists releasing their albums only in digitial download format.
I know with the decline in music sales there’s been talk about digital music eventually replacing CDs, but I have a hard time believing that someday all of our music will be digital. Maybe it’s because I prefer actual CDs, but if history tells us anything it’s that predictions like that are often wrong.
I know it’s not the same thing, but I’m old enough to have been working at a bank when ATMs were starting to come into common use. When I was a teller, we were told that within the decade tellers would become obsolete and that people would be doing all of their banking with the machine. Twenty years later, not only are there still bank branches, but they’ve reintroduced Saturday banking hours. Sure, ATMs and satellite branches offer more convenience, but technology can’t replace everything.
It was the same with VCRs. The movie industry predicted the end of the movie theater as people started watching films at home. What happened instead? People kept going to the movies in droves, and a new industry for videos and DVDs just expanded the industry.
And I think it’ll be the same with music. Sure, digital music is convenient and the ability to buy just one song from an album appeals to a lot of people. And yes, I can see how digital music will continue to grow as an industry.
But if digital music was replacing physical CD sales, the industry wouldn’t be seeing the decline in music sales that it is. Sure, illegal downloading is a problem, but since the invention of the portable cassette recorder people have had the ability to record music and pass it around, and the industry didn’t fall apart.
I think the problem is less about delivery format and more about the fact that music today is mostly cookie cutter drivel written to make radio hits. A few artists dominate the charts, not because that’s what people want but because that’s what radio execs decide you should listen to. If you want a great take on the music industry, check out the Frontline show “The Way The Music Died.” It’s got some great insight into how the industry creates bands and radio hits, and how MTV and Walmart have affected the music industry. Yes, Walmart.
But if you make music people want, they’ll buy it. Look at Kid Rock. None of his music was available online until this past October. Even then he thumbed his nose at iTunes and went exclusively to Rhapsody. And he still sold 1.7 million units of his last CD.
But what do you think? Are CDs going the way of the dinosaur? Do you still buy CDs or have you gone digital only? And what do you think is to blame for the decline in the music industry sales? Is it piracy? Quality of music?
