The permanent Republican majority may be closer than we think.
It is easy right now to think that Rove leaves as a failure. After all, the great initiatives have failed. Social Security failed, permanent tax cuts failed, immigration failed, Democrats control Congress, the president’s approval ratings are in the tank, 2008 is looking pretty bad. And this doesn’t even include horrors like the Iraq War. Today’s zeitgeist? Permanent Democratic majority.
Don’t be surprised, however, if you wake up one morning in November 2008 and wonder why Republicans still control the White House and made gains in Congress.
Why? Because as Karl learned, leading is hard and the Democrats are doing it very poorly. It tends to be glossed over but Congressional approval ratings are lower than presidential approval ratings. Democratic initiatives on Capitol Hill are failing, the Democrats have plenty of issues ahead of them that could easily turn the American public against them even more.
Meanwhile, while everyone – including me from time to time – has pronounced the religious right dead, it is not. The coming fall, the Family Research Council will be holding the largest gathering of Christian political activists since the Christian Coalition’s heyday and the White House has made inroads into the Hispanic and African-American communities through the uber political faith-based initiative.
CW is that Karl is leaving town with his tail between his legs. Don’t buy it.
posted August 13, 2007 at 12:18 pm
I disagree, David.
If you look at the polls, the collapse in Congress’s approval rating is due to extremely low levels of support among Democrats, around 19 percent as of a few weeks back. By contrast, over half of Republicans still give favorable ratings to the president.
Congress is in trouble because it has failed to stand up to the president on war escalation and, now, on FISA.
Also, the GOP in the Senate is filibustering at a record-shattering pace– they are on target to filibuster three times as often as any Senate session in American history.
I’ll post again with links to support this info, but fear that it’ll get held up by Beliefnet for having links… we shall see…
posted August 13, 2007 at 12:20 pm
Polls on Congress’s approval rating: http://whiskeyfire.typepad.com/whiskey_fire/2007/07/when-you-add-up.html
posted August 13, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Senate filibuster rate: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/18218.html
How Democrats caved on FISA:
http://www.tpmmuckraker.com/archives/003908.php
posted August 13, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Rove has been one of the mose divisive staff members in recent history. His strategy has been to divide the nation, and play to the center-right and hard-right. As was noted in some of the coverage this morning, that has left the president with very little margin of error. Rove fed the administration’s hubris. He has served the nation very poorly. Good Riddance.
posted August 13, 2007 at 1:25 pm
Rove always kept the White House in a seemingly – high school mode. High school leadership often has no clue about bringing people together, including especially those who are not “popular” and then using power to have vengeance over others. I understand he is a cheerful man – without doubt. People who have no doubt about their right to have power over others are the root of much evil in this world. It is a Good Riddance kind of thing, but I agree with David – don’t count him out.
posted August 13, 2007 at 3:52 pm
The lower approval rating of congress is never ever glossed over by loyal Republicans. People who read rightish-blogs are forbidden from forgetting.
posted August 13, 2007 at 6:03 pm
I’ll agree with Elvis. Polling says Democrats will still net pick up seats in Congress in ’08. It’s of a piece with the pattern of the last 15+ years, in which election cycles go in twos and the midterms are the more determinative about which faction runs Congress and exerts control of the Presidency. Each such faction tends to be used up, in the eyes of The People, at the next midterm election. Each controlling faction goes to The People after winning the midterm and pleads with The People: “look, you elected us, we need the Presidency to continue with our agenda”- and with the exception of the Gingrich Republicans who ran themselves off the rails in 1995 and Gore’s Supreme Court-created loss despite plurality (the recount was gaining him enough votes), that is a successful argument.
-Conservative Democrats beat out moderate Republicans, 1990&92
-Conservative Republicans beat out conservative Democrats, 1994&96, Clinton ‘triangulates’
-Moderate Democrats beat out conservative Republicans for control in 1998&2000, Supreme Court decides Presidency for Bush
-Hardline Republicans defeat moderate Democrats, 2002&2004
-Liberal Democrats defeat hardline Republicans, 2006 and by current projections 2008
The Republican problem is that the dominant elements of their Nixon-created coalition- the moderates (wealth/tax-focussed faction), the reactionaries (‘Christian’ Right/social issue-focussed faction), and now the classical Right (militarist/power-focussed faction) have all had their turn and are expended/discredited in their usefulness. The coalition is now expended- Rove basically searched for and found all the exploitable voters willing to go along with its agenda in 2000, 2002 (the one election with a large mandate), and 2004 (a win but with a exceedingly limited mandate). 2006 Rove clearly ran out of voters to find and the agenda was defeating itself.
The present field of Republican Presidential candidates reflects that none of them can win a majority on the coalition platform created under Nixon (i.e. be a ‘real Republican’) or be acceptable to their Party running on any other.
The viable and politically credible faction of the Democratic Party is the liberals, and all the noise lately about “the bloggers” is really that the Party’s proper Left and center-Left wings are regenerating and fighting for with the residual right and center-right factions (the ‘pro-Israel’ sorts a la Lieberman, the DLC and Blue Dog Democrats e.g. Harold Ford). The present admiration and frustration with Democrats in Congress is that liberals are in control- Republicans are conceded full minority rights, because liberals don’t think due process and equal protection are just lip service. (As contrast, remember how Democrats got dealt with as a minority in Congress from 2003 to 2006 by majoritarianists like DeLay.) However, Democratic liberals are on the right side of all the issues with The People- there isn’t a way to get a national Republican majority vote at any level of political office in 2008.
All you really need to know is that the Republican polling ceiling is on ‘handling terrorism’, at ~47%. If there is another very significant attack by Al Qaeda that number falls to around 40% and puts that Party out of contention. The lows for the GOP are on ‘ethics’ and ‘handling Iraq’, of course- under 30% support.
posted August 13, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Rove’s man is in the White House.
Certainly he is not leaving with his tail between his legs. Rove is still the man that makes Democrats sweat.
What has he done that is so bad?
He leaves undefeated.
I like that.
posted August 13, 2007 at 7:30 pm
Did you check out the results of the 2006 elections, Donny?
He will be held accountable for the US Attorney firings he ordered, which was felonious obstruction of justice in the case of the San Diego USA and probably others. The election fraud and voting rights violation evidence is also building. Just wait until the RNC server emails come out. Just as a preview
posted August 15, 2007 at 12:58 am
Plus.. congressional polls and Presidential polls are entirely different creatures. Something people often forget.
You see, when people answer whether or not they like ‘Congress’, that’s a whole institution. Not an individual. Nobody votes for ‘congress’, and often ‘congress’ just means ‘government’ or ‘politicians’ or ‘Washington’.
The poll on the president, however, is always and only about one single person. Whomever is in office.
With congress, you get that ‘some of my best friends are’ effect. You see, they’ll all talk about them corrupt, evil, idiot politicians way away in Washington, and likely the polls will reflect that.
But ask them about the person, the individual they actually cast their vote for, the guy from THEIR state, the tune changes.
Well, he/she’s not like all those other guys. My congressperson, they’re good people.
So, don’t get a false idea of what this will mean in terms of votes.
In short, remember.. nobody votes for ‘congress’, they vote for a specific congress person.
They DO, however, vote for ‘president’.