J Walking

J Walking

The GOP muddle

posted by David Kuo | 7:57am Monday September 17, 2007

The latest AP poll puts into sharp relief what everyone already knows – the GOP is a grandly opposed party:

White men, conservatives, evangelicals and other pivotal blocs are divided among the Republican Party’s leading contenders for president, leaving the race for the 2008 GOP nomination highly fluid, according to the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
The poll showed the contest remains a virtual tie between Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor, at 24 percent and Fred Thompson, the actor and former senator from Tennessee, at 19 percent. Not far behind at 15 percent is Sen. John McCain of Arizona while former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has 7 percent.

The three things that jump out are:
1. Romney is hosed. After all the buzz and all the money and all the effort to recruit evangelicals, Gov. Romney needs to be thinking about his next job because he won’t be president (or VP either – evangelicals are scared of Mormons)
2. McCain isn’t hosed. After all he has been through – campaign implosion comes to mind – Sen. McCain is right there.
3. 22% of Republicans are still undecided.



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Comments read comments(7)
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Doug

posted September 17, 2007 at 9:15 am


It’s a much better GOP that doesn’t know all the answers.
I’m glad McCain is still in it. If Romney doesn’t win Iowa and New Hampshire we get to move on without him. “Hosed” is the perfect molecule of punditry, by the way. Congratulations on beating Daniel Shore to it.



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Elvis Elvisberg

posted September 17, 2007 at 9:41 am


I dunno, I’m not willing to write Romney off yet. First off, even though more people are paying more attention than usual, it’s still early. Plus, he’s strong in Iowa, and he’s from a state that’s near New Hampshire (though I don’t know which way that cuts, given that pretty much everyone in Massachusetts hates him). If he can get an early boost, like McCain did in NH, he might be able to do something.
Plus, everybody ahead of him has vulnerabilities. Rudy’s “weirdness factor,” past social liberalism, and complete and total ignorance about everything; Fred’s lack of qualifications and constant campaign turmoil; McCain’s being hated by the GOP. I’m still betting on Huckabee. I think he’d be the best choice for the GOP– social conservatism with a human face– but I don’t know if he’ll get the chance.



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Thinker

posted September 17, 2007 at 9:43 am


So far the Republicans offer nothing except assurances that they will continue war, torture, Guantanmo and will get rid of those nasty illegal aliens. Health Care, the impossible condition of the military, the outrages committed by the executive branch, the environment, the economy, mortgage issues for the poor, our weakening influence in the world – nope – these candidates put it all square in the lap of illegal aliens. Nobody is buying what they have to sell this time.



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I_Like_Dragyn

posted September 17, 2007 at 10:30 am


Thinker, don’t forget they’ll protect everyone from the gays, too.



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liz

posted September 17, 2007 at 10:40 am


The GOP needs to figure out if they are nominating a presidential candidate or a preacher.



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Thinker

posted September 17, 2007 at 11:19 am


Elvis, I tend to agree with you. However, despite having character and integrity in a field that sparkles with neither, Huckabee will have to make a lot of money and bring real expertise on board soon.
Romney is so despised in Massachusetts and Guilianni in New York – seems like that will take care of both of them. Everyone has written off Ron Paul – but he could easily be the Republican Howard Dean.
McCain will implode – it’s like waiting for the other show to drop.



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Shannon

posted September 17, 2007 at 2:17 pm


“White men, conservatives, evangelicals and other pivotal blocs…..”
I was hoping that the GOP would sometime try to break their stereotype that they have NOTHING to appeal to women about.
I still say it is WAY early. Remember, at this time in 2004, Howard Dean was supposedly a “shoe-in” for the Democratic nomination. I just have my favorites from each party so far. In the primaries in Virginia, you chose your party at the polls. Which I think every state should do.



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