J Walking

J Walking

Those amazing Iowa polls

posted by David Kuo | 6:25am Wednesday November 14, 2007

Perhaps you’ve seen them already but the new Iowa poll numbers are amazing:
Democrats
Clinton 25%
Edwards 23%
Obama 22%
Undecided 12%
Republicans
Romney 27%
Huckabee 21%
Giuliani 15%
Undecided 14%
Huckabee’s rise has been extraordinary. Is he finally going to be the Republican candidate that appeals to the hearts of religious conservative voters? Maybe. Maybe he really is the Republican Bill Clinton – the unstoppable and unflappable guy from Hope, Arkansas.
Unique among the candidates, to know him is to like him. The other Republicans don’t wear that well. One is pretty stiff and the other is fairly grating. Huckabee, however, is someone it is hard not to like even if you don’t necessarily like his policies.
On the Democratic side, the story is clearly John Edwards. He refuses to go away and he has a message that hasn’t changed from the beginning of the race. His populist campaign is on the side of the poor.
There are still a whole bunch of undecided voters though – and less than two months till the first votes are cast.



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Larry Parker

posted November 14, 2007 at 9:15 am


Judging by Thinker and the media coverage, one would think Obama has “Big Mo” in Iowa right now, though …
It will be dogfight vs. Edwards’ ground game and Clinton’s name recognition, though.
I worry if Huckabee actually wins the caucus, that it may be dismissed by the media as Pat Robertson’s victory was in 1988. (Iowa is a liberal state, but its conservatives are VERY conservative — see King, Steve.) But I hope not.



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aquaman

posted November 14, 2007 at 10:36 am


Good points, Larry.
About a year ago, I predicted Sam Brownback would win the Iowa caucuses. I figured the top-tier candidates would split the vote enough for an uncompromising social conservative to eke out a win.
Two big things have happened since then: (1) Brownback dropped out of the race, and (2) Romney has had surprising success convincing GOP voters of the sincerity of his conversion on the Road to Des Moines.
Huckabee stands where I suspected Brownback to stand, as the candidate of uncompromising social conservatives. He appears poised to grab 25% of the vote, maybe slightly more. Whether that’s enough to win depends on Romney. Recent polls show him anywhere from the high 20s to the mid 30s, so the 27% in David’s poll falls at the low end of that range. Is that simply a function of statistical sampling, or has Romney peaked in Iowa? I think the answer to that question will matter more than anything Huckabee does or doesn’t do.



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Charity

posted November 14, 2007 at 11:35 am


I like both Edwards and Huckabee. If it came down to a race between those two, I would have to really consider who I would want to vote for next year. If the media is correct and it’s between Clinton and Guiliani or even Clinton and Romney, It would be a matter of voting against a candidate more than for a candidate.
I would be REALLY cool if Ron Paul was a serious threat as well….



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GI

posted November 14, 2007 at 6:22 pm


I am a dem., and if Bill Richardson does not win the nomination then I will switch over and vote for Huckabee!



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Phoebe

posted November 14, 2007 at 9:40 pm


Obama said on the Daily Show that he liked Huckabee.



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Rachel Farer

posted November 15, 2007 at 5:19 pm


I like Ron Paul, but Huckabee has greater personal charisma. It would be fantastic to see both on the same ticket. It does not matter to me who is at the top and who is VP.



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