Can Huckabee win? Can a guy with no money and skeletal organization and the pooled power of the not only the rest of the Republican field actually win?
The answer isn’t no and that is a big deal.
Earlier today I had a discussion with a former governor who knew Huckabee from his days in office. This governor is supporting another of the Republican candidates. He dismissed Huckabee as “not very conservative.” “In fact,” he said, “he’s so liberal he might as well be Giuliani.”
I offered that he was rather conservative on the social issues conservative Christians value so highly. Huckabee is, after all, avowedly pro-life, anti-gay marriage, and pro-Jesus.
“Well, yeah, on those issues he’s ok,” the person sniffed, “but not on immigration.”
One of the reasons Huckabee is so popular is that he doesn’t represent the kind of conservatism this person thinks is so essential for victory. He isn’t just a tax-cutting, immigrant-baiting, government-slashing, business-embracing conservative. He is, to reclaim a phrase, “a conservative with a purpose.”
And people like that.
Yes he is going to be hit with the nastiest stuff imaginable in the coming weeks. I have this sense though that this Arkansas politician knows enough verbal and political karate to throw it right back at his attackers. They will look desperate. He will look like a statesman.
All this said, he lacks two things that are still important in politics – organization and money. It is easy for someone to answer a pollster’s question and say that they like him. It is something else to turn out the voters needed to win a caucus or a primary. And he is going to need to get on TV to counter the barrage of ads that will be slung at him. He better be out there ringing a bell for coins. He’s going to need them.
posted December 11, 2007 at 9:21 am
To me, the meaning of Huckabee is that, if he wins, we discover that the Republican base is not as submissive to the leaders such as Weyrich, Dobson and Robertson as we thought and organization aren’t as crucial as we’ve believed. That would be a wonderful discovery. Of course, his victory would also confirm that genuine conservatism of the small-government, libertarian variety is as dead as I’ve feared. Huckabee v. Clinton or Obama is a choice between two visions of government telling you what to do and how to decide and, probably, which hand to use in the bathroom.
I have to say, I’m delighted by Huckabee’s success, especially because he hasn’t, so far as I know, been pandering to the anti-immigration zealots or the crowd that believes ethics, morality and law don’t apply to the war on terror. I’m still not sure I want him to be President. I am sure I want him to beat Giuliani, Romney and Tancredo. I want erinyes with whips of spun steel to beat Tancredo.
posted December 11, 2007 at 11:25 am
The leaders of the Religious Right never were as powerful as they’re commonly believed to be. GWB collected endorsements from the big names, but it was his ability to mobilize local pastors and activists that enabled him to generate unprecedented levels of turnout among social conservatives in 2000 and 2004. It remains to be seen if Huckabee can do the same. The smart money says “no”– Huckabee isn’t going to win NH, SC Republicans historically have supported “establishment” candidates, and IA will be a distant memory by February 5th. But David is right– the fact that we’re even talking about this is a big deal.
If Huckabee wins the nomination, he’ll have trouble uniting the conservative base, but that’s true of the other leading candidates too. Prior to Katrina, GWB arguably did a better job uniting his party than any President since World War II. With no anointed successor, it was never realistic to think anyone else could unite the Repubicans that well in 2008– which means the GOP needs to capture more swing votes than they did in 2000 and 2004. I think a lot of Republicans intuitively understand this, which is why Giuliani has been persistently popular despite his disdain for party orthodoxy.
Peace.
posted December 11, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Kuo, concerened at all about his lack of foreign policy experience? His potential inability to “comprehend the threat”? To credibly exercise “realpolitik”? He’s a bit of a moralist — and thus a neophyte.
posted December 11, 2007 at 2:01 pm
The Swiftboating of Huckabee has started – watch for stories about his paroling a rapist, his wedding registry, and proposed quarantine of AIDS patients.
posted December 11, 2007 at 2:08 pm
They aren’t looking for a Barry Goldwater conservative but more of a Ronald Reagan neo-con.
posted December 11, 2007 at 2:11 pm
A Neo-con is a tax-cutting, immigrant-baiting, government-slashing, business-embracing conservative who claims to do it all in the name of Jesus.
I wonder what Jesus would think about all of this?
posted December 11, 2007 at 2:47 pm
liz, you forgot war-mongering.
posted December 11, 2007 at 2:55 pm
True PatientWitness, very true
Conservative have tendencies towards isolationism and abhor even the idea of the USA becoming the “international police force”. Of course, much as they hate taxes, a true conservative would give in to their balanced budget desires and like all other war presidents before our current one would never consider lowering taxes and running a deficit during a war.
posted December 11, 2007 at 2:58 pm
What was swiftboating about the Gov. involvement in the release of serial rapist Wayne Dumond?
posted December 11, 2007 at 3:01 pm
David: How do you feel about gay marriage?
posted December 11, 2007 at 3:04 pm
John E. Calling for answers about Huck’s involvement (if any) in freeing a rapist who went on to kill is not “Swiftboating” it is more like Willy Hortoning. Except that with Willy Horton, Gov. Dukakis had nothing to do with Horton’s release other than continuing a prison release program. He did NOT intervene on behalf of Horton (as it appears that Huck has done on behalf of a rapist in Arkansas).
posted December 11, 2007 at 3:10 pm
So Huckabee will be stamped a heretic for becoming agnostic on the Tax Cut Faith, and excoriated for insufficient zeal in perpetrating or extending Equal Protection Clause violations.
Only in America
posted December 11, 2007 at 3:59 pm
James, David is already married.
posted December 11, 2007 at 4:54 pm
Doug: Your comment made me laugh. Thanks for the smile.
posted December 11, 2007 at 7:05 pm
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Iowa caucus finds Huckabee with 39% of the vote, Romney with 23% support, and everyone else in single digits. It’s a two-man race, people need to decide which of these man they agree with.
I think Mike Huckabee is a better candidate then Romney is. Huckabee was a successful govenor in Arkansas and comes out of the conservative movement for Christian values. He has passion for his beliefs. Yes, the liberal media is going all out to destroy him, but that’s to be expected because he’s a Christian conservative.
posted December 11, 2007 at 8:31 pm
The biggest thing any Republican is gonna have to deal with is Bush. Even if Huckabee doesn’t have any real skeletons, Bush will be a huge ball and chain. Unless, he or any of the other candidates (besides Ron Paul who is already doing it) start calling for Bush to resign, be impeached, and or put in jail.
With no WMDs, major combat operations declared over only weeks after the initial shock and awe (remember Mission Accomplished), the hurricane Katrina response, outing a CIA operative for political revenge, gasoline prices 3x higher, home heating at least 1&1/2 times higher, torture, more lies, beating war drums for Iran when intelligence agencies didn’t think they even had a nuclear weapons program, etc.
ALL DEMOCRATS HAVE TO DO IS RUN ADS WITH THE REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE SAYING GREAT THINGS ABOUT BUSH &/OR HANGING OUT WITH HIM.
Think it won’t work & you better think again. That was the strategy in the last election.
I think that the general voter has a great deal of cynicism about candidates wearing Jesus on their sleave in light of the Bush administration.
In fact Huckabee’s drawl and moral platitudes, because they are eerily like Bush’s, could turn off voters on the coasts.
S-Chip will also make a great campaign commercial.
If big fat cat corporate contributors like the oil and gas industry, and that wacky 25% that always poll in favor of Bush force the Republicans to hang on to him to the bitter end, it’s gonna keep Republican scandal fresh in the electorate’s mind next election day.
posted December 11, 2007 at 10:15 pm
A couple things, war-mongers have killed a hundred million unborn children since Roe v. Wade. The Mission was accomplished (perfectly) when Saddam was removed from his role as leader of Iraq. American soldiers are the good guys. Islamic jihadists are the bad guys, that the new and current mission is fighting. Saddam Hussein was not an Islamic jihadist. He is now the dead ex-leader of Iraq. That “Mission” was also acomplished, and not by Americans.
Huckabee is a man that wants good things to happen for good people. He is morally sound, unlike people that desire abortion for birth control methods and redefining marriage and family.
All Huckabee has to do is continue to answer the slings and arrows being thrown at him incessantly by the media and lefty goons. He failed a few times on true compassion. Who hasn’t?
Once the general election comes along, Huckabee’s views on caring for good people will shine brighter than the Democrats’ worship of taxation and hedonism and their hatred of everything morally sound.
posted December 11, 2007 at 10:23 pm
liz, James, hey folks – chill out a little. I’m not going to vote for Huckabee, or any Republican (except maybe Ron Paul). I’m just using the term in a general sense.
posted December 11, 2007 at 10:25 pm
Check this out – things are going to get very interesting:
WASHINGTON — Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee, an ordained Southern Baptist minister, asks in an upcoming article, “Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and the devil are brothers?”
The article, to be published in Sunday’s New York Times Magazine, says Huckabee asked the question after saying he believes Mormonism is a religion but doesn’t know much about it.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20071211/huckabee-mormons/
posted December 11, 2007 at 11:12 pm
Thanks, John E. I had to double-check that I was reading Arianna and not The Onion.
Even as a moderate-liberal, I was initially impressed by Huckabee’s social record as governor and by the fact that he is a gentleman and appears to be a man of his word. However, I don’t think he’s sharp enough to be president. We’ve already seen what can happen when a seemingly genial yet utterly doofus gets elected.
Why, oh why, do our elections all involve choosing the lesser of evils? What happened to “the best and the brightest”?
posted December 12, 2007 at 12:05 am
That sounds like a blockbuster confrontation coming between Romney and Huck.
But David, your ex-guv friend should be very happy. He’s just done a complete flip-flop on immigration — substantively, not just with the (very funny, IMHO) Chuck Norris ad.
posted December 14, 2007 at 12:09 am
One huge block of voters that has been largely ignored is all the Catholics that have jumped ship on the Democrats over abortion, but who are not foaming at the mouth over taxes, crime, and immigration. The fact that Huckabee felt inclined to allow the innocent children of illegal immigrants to get an education and to rescue a guy who’d been castrated in prison, and whose testicles were in a jar on the warden’s desk, might finally give them a reason to vote for a Republican instead of just voting against a Democrat.