Whether Sen. Obama wins Iowa may well determine whether he becomes President Obama.
Few candidates in recent memory - any candidate in recent memory? - have excited younger Americans more than Barack Obama. He is, in many ways, Robert Kennedy's heir in that sense.
Has any major candidate since Kennedy spent more time talking about a healing vision for America?
In 1968 though, younger Americans turned out for RFK. They propelled him forward. Will the same thing be true for Obama?
We will find out in Iowa where he is likely to be either first or third. Why? Because if younger voters turn out it may be a rout. If they don't it may be a rout as well. So much time was spent trying to mobilize younger voters in 2004 but for all the celebrity effort they just stayed home. Will things be different this time?
Obama is certainly no John Kerry and that is one major positive. Voters don't doubt the sincerity of all of his beliefs. Younger voters who seem to have an especially acute BS meter resonate with that. And perhaps that fact alone will turn them out to the polls.
But will it be enough to overcome bad weather and the tedious task of the caucus and the challenge of defying habit and getting involved on election day?
That is the test. Because if they turn out for the Iowa caucuses in January, they are certainly going to turn out in California on February 5th.
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Barak Obama seems to be the Democrats' Mike Huckabee. You might not agree with him on policy but he seems entirely decent, smart and well-meaning. Sadly, I can't say anything about the youth turnout for quite some time now. I don't even know any young voters.
I know lots of young voters. Some young voters live in my family. What is interesting is the number of middle aged white guys with kids who are secretly giving the Obama campaign contributions. I can count former Bush supporters, died in the wool Republicans - who are actively working in my state. Now, I don't know that many people in the campaigns, but there is a groundswell for decency and the ability to communicate. People are frightened at the excesses of this administration and are looking at an "opposite". Obama is that guy. It will be very interesting to see the Iowa vote. Lots depends on the weather - more than you would think.
It could be the older Democratic generation as well as the younger one, David (HTTP://)
community.beliefnet.com/blogs/4164
Obama is a 'faith-based community' candidate in the Party of 'the reality-based community'. He's never led for the Democratic nomination outside Iowa caucus-goers, if that.
Exit interviews after the 2004 election showed that most voters did not actually believe, or knew to be false, the slanders of Kerry they gave as excuses to pollsters to vote for Bush. (Pollsters concluded they were ashamed of voting for Bush but deeply fearful of change.)
Since weather may have something to do with voter turnout, may I suggest voting the way Oregon does? That's mandatory abasentee voting (by mail), wouldn't affect turnout (probably increase it) and ensure all votes are counted on time.
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