Iowa thoughts:
Democrats
- It is all about Obama. IF he wins, especially if he wins with a spread, it is probably all over on the Democratic side… and maybe for the general as well. Why? Because it will prove that all of the general enthusiasm about him – particularly with younger voters – is real and translates into votes… even caucus votes in Iowa in January. 2004 saw a big effort to turn out youth voters. It failed. But let’s face it, no one was going to get enthusiastic about John Kerry. He was 2004′s Mitt Romney. The question that will be answered tonight is whether Obama is 2008′s RFK – arguably the last candidate to excite younger voters with a vision for what America could be. If he loses, then chances are he is finished because the enthusiasm has been nothing more than that… unfocused excitement.
- All that being said, I still think John Edwards has a strong shot tonight. He has raw passion on his side and it is resonating. He is speaking to real discontent, real fear, and the reality of a thoroughly corrupt political establishment. He is, in many ways, the anti-Obama. Obama is dangling the proverbial carrot of hope. Edwards has the Teddy Roosevelt stick out and is saying it is time to do damage to the establishment. That is a message that can sell nationally.
- Hillary? She is in a lose-lose position. If she wins it won’t be that big a deal – no Clinton has lost an election since 1980. If she loses? See Obama above.
Republicans
- Huckabee will win. He will win be a larger than expected margin. After that? Who knows. Can he, on the Republican side, do what Obama is doing? There isn’t any evidence for that yet. The upside for the barrage of attacks, inquiries, and missteps that he has endured/inflicted on himself the past month is that things will only get easier from here on. He’s run the gauntlet and is still standing. Many people thought he might go Howard Dean in Iowa – perhaps, with Leno last night, he is proving he might go Bill Clinton in Iowa instead.
- Sir Mitt will probably get second and then he will probably lose in New Hampshire and then he will lose in South Carolina. Then? He has so much money and is apparently so ambitious that it is hard to see him ever quitting. Can anyone say brokered convention?
- McCain will finish third and will go on to win in New Hampshire and then go to South Carolina where it all started falling apart for him in 2000.
- Giuliani probably wouldn’t have gotten many more votes in Iowa than he will get had he shown up. It is hard to see how he isn’t dead in the water. He will lose in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and will probably lose in Florida. Yes he has a massive war chest for Super Tuesday (Mega Tuesday?) but chances are great he won’t even be part of the conversation.
More later
posted January 3, 2008 at 3:24 pm
Bold predictions. I hope you’re right.
posted January 3, 2008 at 3:49 pm
I think you are right on this one.
We’ll see what happens – think I’ll watch old movies tonight rather than anguish over this thing. I think it all depends on who shows up!!
posted January 3, 2008 at 4:32 pm
I really hope you’re right about Giuliani. He is the only one of the bunch who MUST NOT rule, lest our beloved country fall into a fear-driven police state.
posted January 3, 2008 at 7:00 pm
Interesting thing about Giuliani is that wherever he shows up to campaign – his poll numbers drop. Now that’s a phenomenon – however – I think he is truly the worst of the lot – scary and amoral at the core – I’m not a person to accuse lightly. Might not be pleased with some other candidates, but he scares me.
posted January 3, 2008 at 9:54 pm
Great call but not that simple going forward. You and I were in agreement as far as the projected results and as it turns out, we were right. Great Call! That said, I think New Hampshire presents a serious challenge to both Obama and Edwards, so it really is a Clinton must win. If either Obama or Edwards can take New Hampshire, then Michigan and South Carolina are up for grabs and Clinton may find if more difficult to hang on to the support she has from clergy in the South, especially from African American Clergy.
I think Obama began his win when he started the series of Faith, Action, Change house parties. I know I was persuaded, (I’m an Edwards supporter) to think twice about Obama when I heard charming little old (forgive the agist remark) meeting over coffee and cookies that could speak passionately about the need for change and the leadership of Obama.
Congratulations Barak
posted January 3, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Giuliani made a huge strategic error not competing in New Hampshire, the one early primary/caucus where he could have had appeal.
Suddenly, if he loses Florida, he’s toast. And none of his campaign advisors seem to have clued him in to the fact that most of the expatriate New Yorkers in the Sunshine State are DEMOCRATS.