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Add to NewsvineIt now seems pretty clear that virtually all of the late polling on the Democratic side was wrong... very wrong. The last Rasmussen Report had Obama +7 over Clinton. CBS had him +7. USA Today had Obama +13 and CNN +10.
With more than 25% of New Hampshire now reporting Obama is -5. 80% of precincts still need to report. Nashua still needs to report. But this gap really is extraordinary. Chances are nil that Obama is going to win overwhelmingly.
Why?
It is a return to the race-gap polling problems of the 1980s and 1990s:
This phenomenon was first noticed in the 1982 race for governor of California, where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, narrowly lost to Republican George Deukmejian, despite polls showing him with a lead ranging from 9 to 22 points. The next year, African American Democrat Harold Washington barely won his race for mayor of Chicago against Republican Bernard Epton. Pre-election polls taken within the last two weeks of the campaign showed Washington with a 14-point lead.
The problem was prominent in the New York City mayoral race in 1989. David Dinkens, an African American candidate beat Republican Rudy Giuliani by only 2 points, despite leading by as much as 18 points in polls a week before the election.
Tonight, despite all the talk of how little race matters in this campaign, it is clear that race is still a big deal in bi-racial campaigns. And it has showed up for the first time, in a measurable way, in the 2008 presidential race.
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Clinton gave the nation's highest civilian award — the Presidential Medal of Freedom — to a man who spent the vast majority of his public career and life as a proud segregationist.
1. Bill Clinton interned for J. William Fulbright in 1966-67, when Fulbright was still a segregationist. Fulbright became Clinton's "mentor."
2. In April 1985, Governor Bill Clinton signed Act 985 into law, making the birthdates of Martin Luther King Jr. (the preeminent leader of the civil-rights movement) and Robert E. Lee (the general who led the Confederate army) state holidays on the same day. Of course, the word "segregation" never passed Clinton's considerable lips, but the (uncoded) message he was sending to certain of his white constituents could not have be clearer.
3. Clinton took no steps during his twelve years as governor to repeal a Confederate flag law: Arkansas Code Annotated, Section 1-5-107, provides as follows:
(a) The Saturday immediately preceding Easter Sunday of each year is designated as 'Confederate Flag Day' in this state.
(b) No person, firm, or corporation shall display an Confederate flag or replica thereof in connection with any advertisement of any commercial enterprise, or in any manner for any purpose except to honor the Confederate States of America. [Emphasis added.]
(c) Any person, firm, or corporation violating the provisions of this section shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and upon conviction shall be fined not less than one hundred dollars ($100) nor more than one thousand dollars ($1,000).
In 1989, then-Gov. Bill Clinton was sued as one of three top Arkansas officials responsible for the intimidation of black voters in his state as part of a legal action brought under the 1965 Voting Rights Act, NewsMax.com has learned.
And a year earlier the U.S. Supreme court ruled that Clinton had wrongfully tried to overturn the election of a black state representative in favor of a white Democrat.
In a related 1988 case, Clinton had tried to replace a duly elected African-American state representative with a white candidate, only to be stopped by the U.S. Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court ruling came as the then-governor was fighting another court battle to preserve racial profiling in his state, a tool that Clinton later criticized while president as a "morally indefensible, deeply corrosive practice."
But a decade earlier he approved the profiling of Hispanics by Arkansas State Police as part of a drug interdiction program in 1988, the Washington Times revealed in 1999.
"The Arkansas plan gave state troopers the authority to stop and search vehicles based on a drug-courier profile of Hispanics, particularly those driving cars with Texas license plates," the Times said.
"A federal judge later ruled the program unconstitutional," the paper reported. "A lawsuit and a federal consent decree ended the practice - known as the 'criminal apprehension program' the next year."
Then-Gov. Clinton, however, not only criticized the profiling ban; "at one point, [he] threatened to reinstate the program despite the court's ruling," the Times said.
Hearing Clinton's condemnation of racial profiling in 1999, Roberto Garcia de Posada, executive director of the Hispanic Business Roundtable, complained that the then-president "had been a strong supporter of racial profiling against Hispanics in the past."
After he was sued in the late 1980s by the NAACP's Legal Defense Fund for failing to enforce the Voting Rights Act in Arkansas, then-Gov. Bill Clinton suggested to a group of pro-segregation whites that they were being unfairly targeted by civil rights laws as a result of the South's loss in the Civil War.
"The meeting turned sour when one of the local whites demanded to know why, in his view, the whites were always made to pay for others' problems. Other whites in the group began to echo his charge. ..." "Bill Clinton, the lead defendant in the case, took to the podium to respond. In a tone of resignation, Clinton said, 'We have to pay because we lost.'" Clinton was referring to the South's Civil War loss.
Bill Clinton spent Wednesday afternoon playing golf at a country club accused of discriminating against blacks and Jews. Jake Siewert, Clinton's rep, confirmed it was the second time Clinton has played at the Indian Creek Country Club about 20 miles north of Miami. He first played there a year and a half ago. Siewert said, "All venues are fully vetted," and dismissed allegations of racism and anti-Semitism as "not true."
"There's no question about it, the club has anti-Semitic policies in place to keep out Jews," said Earl Barber, who was on the club's board for 14 years, and a member for 22. Barber, along with Alvah Chapman, a former chairman of Knight Ridder, and M. Anthony Burns, a trucking magnate, resigned their club memberships because of its "membership policies."
To add insult to injury, 14 of the island's 34 homes are owned by Jews, and although they are denied access to the club, a portion of the residents' property tax is used for the club's upkeep. Miller notes that he refused to meet Clinton during his 1999 visit to Indian Creek because the president was playing at the anti-Semitic club. The snub even made the local news.
When Jeb Bush was slated to pay a visit to the club, Miller informed the Florida governor of the restrictive policies, and Bush cancelled.
Posted by: El Grande | January 9, 2008 10:03 PM
"White men do not fear getting raped by black men. White women do. White women have a viceral fear of black men."
As a white woman married to a black man with black male children, I've got to tell you a blanket statement like that is wrong and offensive.
And I don't personally fear rape anymore than I fear being murdered or being a car accident.
Speak for yourself.
"Though a conservative myself, I was talking with one of my very liberal female friends the other day and she was talking about how afraid she was one night when she had to walk past a group of young black men at night. Then she caught herself and was a bit apologetic. I told her jokingly. "Hey it's okay to be racist if you are a woman."
I don't see how lib or con politics play into this.
What do you want, someone to tell you that visceral fear of someone based on their race is right or justified? It isn't.
"There you have it in a nutshell. Women who are liberal think they are immune to racism because they are so open minded. But their open mindedness runs amazingly right along with their own selfish self interest. So, in the minds of many white women, "it's okay to be racist if you are a woman.""
So you're saying white women fear black men, or Barack Obama specifically, are going to rape them if they pass them on the street, and therefore they don't vote for him because that way the crime will be averted?
Because that's what I'm getting from this post.
Posted by: Jennifer | January 10, 2008 12:17 AM
I was appauled at this obvious white woman's views on black men. I'm sorry but our black men do not go around raping white women. Last time I checked, white men, black men, hispanics, asians, etc have all committed crimes against women. There's one in every race maam. You obviously have a serious issue and clearly a racist!
Posted by: Rachel | January 11, 2008 3:19 PM
To the Author of: "White men do not fear getting raped by black men. White women do. White women have a viceral fear of black men....."
Madam (if you are a woman), I am a black woman. I would be afraid to walk past a group of young white men hanging out at night. Men are men. A rapist, thief, murderer, serial killer, child molester, wife abuser, etc. is not predetermined by the color of one's skin. (neither is a racist - racism occurs among humans and will continue until they evolve intellectually to another level.) I am so sorry that you think the way that you do. Try not to pass the hate on to your children. By the way, white men wantonly raped black women at will during and after slavery. But, black, yellow, red (pick your color) men would have done the same thing under similar circumstances.
Posted by: Hazel | March 6, 2008 8:49 AM
Hello to members of this site please to have joined your forum.
Posted by: lokpbai | August 15, 2008 4:17 AM
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