Associated Press – December 7, 2007
WASHINGTON – Mike Huckabee has vaulted from nowhere into second place in the Republican presidential race, riding a burst of support from evangelicals, Southerners and conservatives, a nationwide poll showed Friday.
The surge by the former Arkansas governor has come largely at the expense of Fred Thompson, according to the national survey by The Associated Press and Ipsos. Thompson has dropped after failing to galvanize the party’s right-wing core as much as some had expected.
Rudy Giuliani remains the front-runner, yet while his support long has been steady it shows signs of fraying. Huckabee’s growing strength in the South has come as the former New York mayor’s support there has dropped, the poll found.
“Why not me?” Huckabee said in an interview Thursday. “I meet all the criteria. I’m conservative, but I think I appeal to a broader set of voters. And I think that people are also looking for someone with whom they can identify.”
The poll showed Giuliani at 26 percent among Republican and GOP-leaning voters, about where he has been since spring. Huckabee has 18 percent, up from 10 percent in an AP-Ipsos survey a month ago and 3 percent in July.
Arizona Sen. John McCain has 13 percent, Mitt Romney 12 percent and Thompson 11 percent.
Huckabee’s ascent in the national poll echoed his upswing in Iowa, whose Jan. 3 nominating caucuses will be the first votes in the 2008 presidential campaign. A recent AP-Pew Research Center poll showed Huckabee in a virtual tie there with Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, though Huckabee trails significantly in New Hampshire and South Carolina, two other important states that vote early next year.
A Baptist minister who mixes a folksy manner with an emphasis on his faith, Huckabee now has the support of 25 percent of white evangelical voters, 23 percent of conservatives and 28 percent of Southerners, the AP-Ipsos poll found. That is a solid increase in each of those areas since November, and a lead or share of the lead in each category.
“It’s his humanness. He’s not like a robot,” said Natosha Romine, 24, a homemaker from Dallas and Huckabee supporter interviewed in the survey. “You could tell he’s been through some stuff, like he’s one of us.”
The Democratic race showed virtually no change from last month. In the new AP-Ipsos national survey, Hillary Rodham Clinton has about a 2-to-1 lead over Barack Obama, 45 percent to 23 percent, with John Edwards at 12 percent, though a recent AP-Pew poll showed a three-way battle among them in Iowa.
Just a month ago in the GOP race, Thompson was in second place with 19 percent. Along with his drop in total support since then, his backing from conservatives also has fallen, though his support from evangelicals and Southerners has stayed roughly the same. In all three categories, he now trails Huckabee.
“You need to be able to have a broader-based conservative coalition” than Huckabee has to win, said John McLaughlin, Thompson’s pollster, who said the race remains fluid. “The question is can he broaden? The challenge to the other candidates is can we get a greater share of conservative votes.”
Giuliani’s national support has barely budged since spring, but his backing from Southerners has fallen since November. He now trails Huckabee in that category, and is about tied with him for conservatives and evangelicals. The AP-Pew polling showed Giuliani trailing in Iowa and New Hampshire and sharing the South Carolina lead with Thompson and Romney.
“While other candidates have gone up and down, the mayor’s support has stayed steady and strong,” said Giuliani spokeswoman Maria Comella.
A front-runner in the earliest contests until Huckabee caught him in Iowa, Romney has met resistance because of some voters’ qualms about his Mormon religion. In a speech Thursday in College Station, Texas, he said while he would never abandon his religious beliefs, his church would not influence his decisions as president.
Evangelicals represent about four in 10 GOP voters nationally, according to the new AP-Ipsos survey. That makes them a crucial Republican constituency, though it also underscores why the more moderate Giuliani remains a strong contender.
Despite Huckabee’s strength with evangelical voters, he has had a tougher time building support among less religious Republicans. He had the support of only 14 percent of non-evangelicals in the survey, compared with Giuliani’s 31 percent.
“If he’s going to be successful in the long run, he has to expand his appeal from social conservatives,” said Neil Newhouse, a GOP pollster not affiliated with a presidential candidate. “If he’s able to do that, he’ll give anybody a run for their money.”
The poll involved telephone interviews with 1,009 adults nationally and was conducted from Dec. 3-5. It had an overall margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Included were interviews with 469 Democrats and people leaning Democratic with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, and 376 Republicans and GOP leaners with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points.
—
AP Director of Surveys Trevor Tompson and AP News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.
Copyright 2007 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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posted December 7, 2007 at 4:45 pm
“It’s not over until the fat lady sings” as someone said, and I don’t know who. Still a long time until the “real election.” The Republicans have absolutely no one that appeals to me anyhow. I will either vote Democrat or if that candidate doesn’t cut it, Mickey Mouse will do.
posted December 7, 2007 at 5:49 pm
“Why not me?”
Let’s ask the people who should know him best, the people of Arkansas. In the Arkansas Poll for 2007 released this Oct. 30, when asked whom they would vote for for President if the election were today, 35% named Hillary Clinton and 8% named Mike Huckabee.
posted December 7, 2007 at 6:18 pm
The Republicans have been desperately looking for a candidate for months now, and Huckabee looks good to them because they don’t know him. Like Fred Thompson did.
He announced his immigration platform today and sort of flip-flopped; as governor he’d proposed making children of immigrants eligible for scholarships and in-state tuition, and gave state money to help children of illegals caught in a raid at a poultry plant. His new platform doesn’t mention education and is generally hard-nosed in line with those of his opponents.
I like some of the things Huckabee did and tried to do as governor but I don’t like some of his positions and I don’t trust him and how he’d handle or be handled by the Republican power brokers.
posted December 8, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Go, Mike!!
posted December 9, 2007 at 12:22 am
And the nation says, “zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz HuH? zzzzzzzz.”
posted December 9, 2007 at 1:25 pm
I read this a.m., that Huckabee’s past stances have come back to haunt him. Such as in 1992 he once advocated isolating AIDS patients from the general public, opposed increased federal funding in a search for a cure and said, homosexuality could pose a dangerous public risk. He also said he thought in 1992 that hollywood celebrities should fund the AIDS Research from their own pockets, rather than Federal Health Agencies. This was 15 yrs. ago, and he was a canadidate for a U.S. Senate seat. He, in as much, said recently we didn’t know much about the subject then. True, but most of us who weren’t running for Senate in 1992 knew more than he did at the time. Most of us probably still know more about U.S. problems than he does now, because we have open minds and can project what needs to be done. There is no way I would consider voting for this gentleman.
posted December 9, 2007 at 3:55 pm
Henrietta,
I too heard his 1992 AIDS stance on the TV last night and somewhere in PBS yesterday morning. He must have heard what Cuba either was doing with AIDS patients or wanted to do with them. His idea was a bit scary. He has never had my vote anyhow, but with this past stance and a couple of article sites I read,posted by nnmns, I really know he isn’t for me.
posted December 9, 2007 at 5:11 pm
Fifteen years ago the idea of isolating AIDS victims from the general public was not a cruel idea. It was proposed as a way of stopping the spread of this terrible disease, much the way that tuberculosis victims were isolated in an earlier time. The proposal was never carried out, by Mr. Huckabee or anyone else. At the time, AIDS was generally spread through homosexual activity, thus the statement that homosexuality could pose a public health threat. In 1992, I seriously doubt that “most of us knew more than he did.” I also seriously doubt that the “open minds” who dominate the posts here know more about anything than anyone else does. It seems to me there are a lot of closed minds, including my own, behind what is written here. I support Mike Huckabee for a variety of reasons. He is not perfect; none of the horses in this presidential horse race are. And I am certain, like all the candidates, he is not the same person he was 16 years ago. I base my support on what the man says now, not what he might have said that long ago.
posted December 9, 2007 at 7:00 pm
Think of where his closed mind came from, his religion, it always goes back to that, doesn’t it seem to? If you are young, fifteen yrs. seems like a long, long time. Let me tell you it seems like just yesterday to a lot of others, and to me. Medical people had much to say about how AIDS patients were to be handled in 1992, and they still do. Science has much to explain to people such as Huckabee, and the whole gamut of Republicans hoping for the “Big Job”. They don’t seem to listen now, they didn’t then either. If everyone had been less judgmental in ’92, less fearful, less ready to hold the lgbt in contempt, to suit their religious beliefs, perhaps immediate steps to postively work towards getting what it took fifteen yrs. to finally start, could have saved more lives. You know these people who have AIDS are just like you, and all the open-minded people who dominate these postings.
posted December 9, 2007 at 11:01 pm
Whether or not Biblical Christianity opens one’s mind, or closes it, is, of course, a matter of opinion, a matter of viewpoint, a matter dictated by the presuppositions one has in place. To one who, for whatever reasons, has closed his or her mind to the possibility that the God revealed in the Old and New Testaments is, indeed, real, those who believe He is are viewed as closed-minded, as responsible for all the world’s ills and misfortunes because of their narrow-mindedness and bigotry.
But as a Biblical Christian (evangelical Christian), I, of course, do not see myself, or any other Biblical Christian, in that frame. I am convinced the God revealed in the Old and New Testaments is real, that He is one who hates sin, that He loved sinners enough, not to accept them as they are, but to offer His Son’s life so they could be set free from sin and its terrible penalities. To me, that is not narrow minded and bigoted. To me that is the greatest thing that has ever happened that sets people free from the dark disappointments and frustrations we all face living in a fallen world as we do. You will have to forgive me, I suppose, if I am overjoyed at every opportunity I have to announce to the world my faith in Jesus Christ as the Son of God and my Savior from sin. To me, Jesus Christ has opened my mind to so much I would never have known apart from faith in Him.
Inspiration. Spirituality. Faith. Those are three words that appear in the Beliefnet logo at the top of this page. Forgive me, but I don’t find those things in medical science, though I appreciate what medical science can do. Forgive me, but I don’t find those things in saying that we are all God’s children and that He finds us all okay just the way we are. If that were true, then why did Christ have to give His life? He died because we are not okay as we are.
It is in Biblical Christianity that I have found inspiration, spirituality and faith. If that is a problem for others, I am sorry, but I am not going to change what I have in Christ even if I could. In addition to those three words, I have also found hope and life in Christ.
Why would I want to give that up to stand with those who turn God into a weak and benevolent old man who looks the other way at our failures and sins? Why would I want to give that up to stand with the atheist who has nothing for inspiration, spirituality and faith other than dead, cold science?
The reason I support Mike Huckabee is because he understands the things I have just written. He is not perfect, and he will tell you he is a sinner whom God has redeemed through His Son. I respect him for that. To many of you that is narrow minded religious bigotry. I am truly sorrow you see it that way.
Yes, my faith in Christ has closed my mind. It has convinced me that, apart from faith in Christ, no one is okay. It has convinced me that science, though appreciated in a limited way, can never answer the most important questions of life. It has convinced me that God’s love for every person does not mean He accepts them the way they are.
But my faith in Christ has opened my mind. To inspiration. To spirituality. To faith. To life. And it is a great joy to know that I have those things no matter who is in the White House, or Congress, or who is posting blogs on Beliefnet.
posted December 10, 2007 at 11:32 am
WC:
“Yes, my faith in Christ has closed my mind. It has convinced me that, apart from faith in Christ,no one is okay…………It has convinced me that God’s love for every person does not mean He accepts them the way they are.”
Whatever gets it for you. However I find it is sad you feel that your god doesn’t accept all her chilren, just the way they are born. After all, if you believe she made them, why would there be defects?
No one is okay? Does that mean only those who believe the way you do are “OK”? How do you define”OK”?
Huckabee is just another candidate, who will spout whatever the audience he is standing in front of wants to here. Being a preacher certainly isn’t an asset. (Except that he might be able to talk, unlike the current White House occupant).
posted December 11, 2007 at 7:59 am
In 1992, MANY people thought that it was a good idea to isolate AIDS sufferers. Mike Huckabee is now a “progressive” on the issue.
And this? “Why not me?”
“Let’s ask the people who should know him best, the people of Arkansas. In the Arkansas Poll for 2007 released this Oct. 30, when asked whom they would vote for for President if the election were today, 35% named Hillary Clinton and 8% named Mike Huckabee.”
Posted by: nnmns | December 7, 2007 5:49 PM
///
I’m sure Ms. Winfrey has a thought on that.
Huckabee has shown that he can change poll numbers. I seem to remember that the “poll numbers” of exiting voters in ’04, showed John Kerry with 107% of the vote. It appeared that no one in America had even casted a vote for “President” Bush. Or so it was reported. Wink, wink.
In other words, polls are conducted by pollsters. No, no, I’m surrrrre nnmns, doesn’t have a well documented agenda to use the poll numbers for.
Wink, wink . . .
posted December 11, 2007 at 9:05 pm
Donny:
What is unfortunate is that in ’04 we didn’t get Kerry for president and were stuck with “W” for another 4 years!! Look how well that has turned out!!! The wisdom of the voters? No,the stupidity of the voters!