Dream on, Michele. I’m sure some voters are being scared off (let’s just go ahead and say they’re being “terrorized”) by the Republican onslaught of vile lies and innuendo in the form of robocalls, ads and mailings (I get ALL of them here in NC), but when you look at the big picture, it’s clear that Obama has the edge (“It’s a hundred yards dash and Obama is already 20 years ahead”), that his message is getting through, and that every underhanded, desperate tactic tried by McNasty and the Gang either proves to be a dud or backfires spectacularly.
Now we have the news that “K-Mart mom” Palin is actually a lot more like the adorable prostitute in “Pretty Woman,” tricked out by her sugar daddy “john” in fancy clothes from Neiman-Marcus (known to us T.J. Maxx and Marshall’s bargain shoppers as “Needless Mark-up”) in order to disguise her true identity as a not-ready-for-prime-time fascist party doll who will do and say anything to get elected: just wind her up and she’ll screech ten pre-recorded lies that will whip any crowd of yabbos into a murderous frenzy–all while wearing her $2500 Valentino jacket and red spike heels–no wonder lonely boy conservatives like Rich Lowery sit up straighter on the sofa when she winks in their direction.
Let’s take a closer look at the polls, courtesy of Taegan Goddard’s website:
Big Ten Battleground: Obama Leads in Key Midwestern States
The latest Big Ten Battleground Poll shows Sen. Barack Obama with a ten point national lead over Sen. John McCain, 52% to 42%. In the individual midwestern states, Obama also has huge leads.
Illinois: Obama 61%, McCain 32%
Indiana: Obama 51%, McCain 41%
Iowa: Obama 52%, McCain 39%
Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 41%
Michigan: Obama 58%, McCain 36%
Minnesota: Obama 57%, McCain 38%
Pennsylvania: Obama 52%, McCain 41%
Wisconsin: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
Said pollster Charles Franklin: “In September, we saw virtually the entire Big Ten as a battleground. Now Obama is clearly winning the Big Ten battleground. The dominance of the economy as a top issue for voters is the overwhelming story.”
Quinnipiac: Obama Leads in Big Three
With 12 days to go, a new Quinnipiac poll finds Sen. John McCain is narrowing the gap in Florida, but fading in Ohio and barely denting Sen. Barack Obama’s double-digit lead in Pennsylvania.
Florida: Obama 49%, McCain 44%
Ohio: Obama 52%, McCain 38%
Pennsylvania: Obama 53%, McCain 40%
Said pollster Peter Brown: “As we enter the home stretch, Sen. Obama is winning voter groups that no Democrat has carried in more than four decades, and he holds very solid leads in the big swing states. If these numbers hold up, he could win the biggest Democratic landslide since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.”
WP/ABC Poll: Obama Widens National Lead
The latest Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama now holds an 11 point lead over Sen. John McCain among likely voters. This is Obama’s largest lead of the campaign in this poll.
Key finding: “Former secretary of state Colin Powell’s endorsement provides a new boost for Obama, who has made significant progress with voters as a leader in international affairs. But Obama also continues to be lifted by more fundamental advantages, including a 2 to 1 advantage on ‘helping the middle-class.’”
WSOC-TV Poll: Obama Leads in North Carolina
A new WSOC-TV poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain, 48% to 46%.
Compared to a previous poll for the station, Obama is up 2.4 points, while McCain is down 1.4 percent.
Obama Poll Shows Tighter Race in Pennsylvania
An internal poll from Sen. Barack Obama’s campaign in Pennsylvania has him just two points ahead of Sen. John McCain, according to The Hill.
“WILK radio host Steve Corbett said Tuesday he obtained an Obama campaign e-mail about the internal poll showing a tight race.” The Obama campaign “wouldn’t confirm the internal poll numbers, but said that the e-mail was sent without permission.”
Update: Apparently this poll was reported a week ago, though it’s relevance is more interesting today considering the McCain campaign’s recent actions.
Internal GOP Memo Predicts Blowout in House Races
Washington Whispers obtained a new internal GOP tally of House races — also called a “death list” — that shows Republicans could lose a net 34 seats in the November elections. That would give Democrats a 270-165 advantage in the 111th Congress.
In the Senate, Republicans expect to lose ground but to keep as many as 44 seats, ensuring their ability to stage a filibuster.
Time/CNN Poll: Obama Leads in Key Red States
The latest Time/CNN poll shows Obama leading in four of five battleground states that went to President Bush four years ago.
Nevada: Obama 51%, McCain 46%
North Carolina: Obama 51%, McCain 47%
Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
Virginia: Obama 54%, McCain 44%
West Virginia: McCain 53%, Obama 44%
Key finding: “The polls also suggest that the McCain campaign’s recent attempts to link the Democratic nominee to former domestic terrorist William Ayers and the liberal organizing group ACORN (which the GOP accuses of perpetrating voter fraud) are not resonating with most voters.”
Mason-Dixon: Florida, Virginia Still Up For Grabs
The latest from Mason-Dixon in Florida and Virginia show very tight races.
Florida: McCain 46%, Obama 45%
Virginia: Obama 47%, McCain 45%
Rainmaker Poll: West Virginia is Close
A new Rainmaker Media Group (D) poll in West Virginia shows Sen. John McCain just edging out Sen. Barack Obama, 42% to 41%.
AP/Gfk Poll: Presidential Race Very Close
A new AP-Gfk poll shows the presidential race much closer than other recent polls. Sen. Barack Obama just barely edges Sen. John McCain, 44% to 43%, among likely voters.
However, when you look at total respondents to the survey, Obama’s lead grows to ten points, 47% to 37%.
Fox News Poll: Obama Expands National Lead
A new Fox News poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by nine points nationally, 49% to 40%, among likely voters. Two weeks ago, Obama held a seven point lead.
Key finding: “Obama is seen as the candidate who will bring the right kind of change to Washington, and more voters trust him to handle the major economic problems facing the country right now. By a double-digit margin voters think Obama ‘s tax plan would do more to improve their family’s financial situation.”
Ipsos/McClatchy: Obama Expands Lead
A new Ipsos/McClatchy poll of likely voters finds Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain by eight points, 50% to 42%.
Key finding: “On issues, Obama’s gained ground among voters across the board, even on issues where McCain still has an advantage and on some where the Republican usually would expect to be ahead.”
For instance, on taxes and family values, voters now prefer Obama over McCain by a margin of 8 points on both issues.
Why McCain Still Fights in Iowa, Pennsylvania
First Read: “So many pundits and analysts are wondering why McCain is continuing to push for Iowa and Pennsylvania, despite the daunting poll numbers in those two states. There are two reasons. First, he’s run out of options. If you assume Colorado is gone and that Virginia is teetering, he has to find 270 EVs somewhere. Second, Iowa and Pennsylvania are two of the oldest states in the union, as far as the age of their populations. Both states have tons of seniors, and if McCain can turn things around again with seniors, he should see movement first in these two states. Simply put, the campaign doesn’t have a lot of options; it’s not worth attempting to hold states that get McCain to 250 or 260 electoral votes. The game is getting to 270, and Iowa and Pennsylvania may be his last hope at keeping a path to 270 alive.”
Early Voting Gives Obama Edge
“Democrats are voting early in greater numbers than their Republican counterparts in several closely contested states, reversing a pattern that favored the GOP in past elections,” according to USA Today.
“The trend is evident in Ohio, North Carolina and Iowa, Nevada and New Mexico, state and county figures show. In Georgia, blacks are voting in greater numbers than they did in 2004.”
“The early voting trend is about even in Colorado. Republicans claim the edge among absentee voters in Florida, but Democrats are voting in far greater numbers at early voting polling places where voters lined up this week.”
Said Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center: “This cannot be good news for John McCain. It’s the 100-yard dash, and Obama is already 20 yards ahead.”
It Ain’t Over, But…
Charlie Cook: “The metrics of this election argue strongly that this campaign is over, it’s only the memory of many an election that seemed over but wasn’t that is keeping us from closing the book mentally on this one.”
Six reasons the race is likely over:
1. No candidate as far back in the polls as McCain is with just two weeks to go has ever won.
2. Record setting early voting in dozens of states locks in votes in the event something big happens in the next two weeks.
3. Democrats have a large advantage in party registration as compared to four years ago.
4. Obama is outspending McCain by a large margin in the battleground states.
5. There is no reliable evidence of a “Bradley effect” in the polling.
6. Obama has probably secured every state that Democrats won four years ago and leads in half a dozen states Republicans won.

You’ve probably heard Greenspan’s comments today.
I also heard some comments from Bush on the economy, upbeat and triumphalist. I thought to myself, “It’s just like the Iraq War all over again.”
I’m growing tired of hyperbole.

It is still impossible to accurately poll Obama. In spite of that, given some of the state by state margins, he does seem to have an advantage and is probably significantly ahead in electoral votes.
The rule of thumb is to subtract 5% from any Obama figure. In other words, if he is polling ten points ahead of McCain in a given state, he will still be ahead by five points. Anything under a five point lead has to be considered at least even. And yes, the Bradley effect is alive and well.

Where’s your evidence for the Bradley effect being “alive and well,” CC? It certainly didn’t appear in the primary races.

Once I read “Palin” and “prostitute” in the same sentence, I skipped the rest of the comment.
In the end, the only poll that matters is the one that closes November 4. Beyond that, the only poll that matters is the electoral college.
If McCain happens to be ahead, I anticipate much whining and fussing and filing of lawsuits until the votes are counted at least half a dozen times – including the ACORN votes.

is there any evidence of the bradley effect in the past 15 years?
and mzellen, to be sure, if it’s close or not, it’s likely that republicans will be out meddling with the polling locations, ordering that recounts be stopped, suppressing voters, illegally jamming phone lines of any organization working to give people rides to their voting location… heck, they’re already purging voter registration polls illegally. because if 70% of the population voted, there would be no republican party.
right-wing patriarch, paul weyrich, spoke for the republican party when he said, “I don’t want everybody to vote…our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GBAsFwPglw
tell us, mzellen, what is your fear of acorn? republicans would rather suppress 1,000,000 valid voters to stop 1 illegal vote.

AR, do you think that all voter fraud should be stopped, or just “the other side”?
Both sides have talking points. If I quote people I have heard, I’m mocked. So why bother? If I quote news reports, it’s said that they are biased, so why bother?
The fact that you are not concerned about the increasing number of ACORN cases popping up all over the country says volumes.

“I don’t want everybody to vote…our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”
No doubt.
“”A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largess from the public treasury.
From that time on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits from the public treasury, with the results that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.”

MzEllen, http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp

Moonshadow, I didn’t attribute the quote because (as this blog suggests) it matters less who said it, then the truth it brings to mind.
The same blog notes:
“Consider the elemental truth of America today. Fully 40% of Americans, euphemistically referred to as “the working poor,” pay no federal income taxes. None! Then at the other end of the scale, the “obscenely rich” who get all those tax breaks, where we find that the top 15% of earners pay more than 40% of total federal tax revenue.
Now, this leads inevitably to the sordid conclusion that if one wants to get elected to public office it would be wise, if not just, to appeal to the biggest demographic slice. That would be the ones who pay no taxes rather than the ones who pay a lot.”

MzEllen, you conflate voter fraud (someone voting illegally), a rare occurence, with fraudulent registrations (forms filled out with the names of non-existent people, the deceased, Mickey Mouse, etc.)
People who get paid to register voters sometimes fill out forms with phony names because they get paid per registered voter. Nobody shows up at the polls claiming to be Mickey Mouse trying to vote.
You seem to be informed, so I’m sure you realize that charges of voter fraud by Republicans are fraudulent in themselves; David Iglesias was fired from the Justice Department for refusing to go along with its campaign to investigate bogus claims of voter fraud. That kind of politicizing of the electoral process seems to be a Republican speciality.
Sorry you were offended by the mere presence in the same sentence of the words “prostitute” and “Palin.” I did say it was an adorable prostitute in “Pretty Woman” whose client paid for all her fancy clothes so she could pass for a lady.

“I also heard some comments from Bush on the economy, upbeat and triumphalist. I thought to myself, ‘It’s just like the Iraq War all over again.’”
was bush standing under a banner declaring, “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!” by chance?

“I didn’t attribute the quote because (as this blog suggests) it matters less who said it, then the truth it brings to mind.”
uh-huh. right. dubious quotes. and truth is merely objective without facts to back it. let’s just analyze the quote:

“Consider the elemental truth of America today. Fully 40% of Americans, euphemistically referred to as ‘the working poor,’ pay no federal income taxes. None!”

maybe not, but every worker pays payroll taxes withheld by the employer, you know, social security tax and medicare tax. those aren’t income taxes, but they’re federal taxes, too.
here’s some fact-checking: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/813/
and for the other part of the quote:

“Then at the other end of the scale, the ‘obscenely rich’ who get all those tax breaks, where we find that the top 15% of earners pay more than 40% of total federal tax revenue.”

perhaps you can explain the flipside of that argument, and how 40% of the poorest can possibly carry the weight of 40% of the tax revenue. and then there is this (www.gao.gov/new.items/d08617.pdf), where we find out that “IRS records show that, as of September 30, 2007, over 1.6 million businesses owed over $58 billion in unpaid federal payroll taxes, including interest and penalties.”
“The fact that you are not concerned about the increasing number of ACORN cases popping up all over the country says volumes.”
it sure does say volumes! here they are:
foreword
i’m concerned about all voter fraud, but voter suppression is a much more real and large-scale problem than voter registration fraud.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/05/16/AR2006051601712.html
chapter 1: mickey mouse
when someone shows up at the polls ready to cast a vote under the identification of mickey mouse, i’m sure questions will arise then (if it hasn’t already been properly researched and cleared by the election officials, as every registration is supposed to be). if the person doesn’t have big ears, red pants, yellow shoes and four-fingered hands, he should probably be investigated for voter fraud.
chapter 2: chopping down the tree because of a few bad nuts
righties are attacking acorn to destroy it’s credibility (and hopefully take obama down with it) rather than encourage the few who padded voter registration rolls to be fired and prosecuted. it was in fact acorn who discovered the discrepancies and reported them to authorities rather than try to cover them up.
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/local/20081022_Chester_man_arrested_in_voter_fraud.html
chapter 3: GOP double standard
mark anthony jacoby, owner the young political majors, was arrested last week on charges of voter registration fraud. ypm is a firm hired by the GOP to register republican voters (unlike acorn which is nonpartisan). the GOP pays the firm $7 to $12 for every person it registers as a republican. yet, nobody has heard senator john mccain complain about how the ypm is unraveling the fabric of our democracy.
chapter 4: true crimes
illegal registration vs. illegal voting… the percentage of fraudulent registrations pale in comparison to the number of valid registrations. still, i’m concerned with every case of voter registration fraud. each case should be investigated and the guilty parties should be prosecuted. but even with the few cases of registration fraud, how many of those turn into someone actually showing up to the polls to vote twice or more to cast an illegal vote?
chapter 5: show me the numbers
i’ve asked before, only – as you would put it – to hear the chirping of crickets. so, i’m still waiting to see valid numbers, some statistics that prove that any substantial number of illegal votes have actually been cast.

was bush standing under a banner declaring, “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!” by chance?
Now I know you are playing for laughs, ar. But, I don’t watch TV, so I haven’t been cursed with having that image seared into my mind. Thankfully …
MzEllen, I don’t believe that statement contains truth; I don’t expect the United States to ever become a dictatorship. I’m sorry you do.

The AP poll got its numbers by inflating the numbers of evangelicals. The actual numbers they got showed Obama with a 10 point lead.
AP almost doubled the evangelical portion of the vote, from 23% to 42%.
Obama still held a small lead. There was an agenda at work here. When you read how skewed the AP poll was, you’ll see it’s not worth the paper it’s written on.
All the non-skewed polls showed a very different result.
Do we really need to mention that the AP is run by the right-wing moonie church? And the fact that its head is Ronald Fournier, who is a McCain supporter?

so I’m sure you realize that charges of voter fraud by Republicans are fraudulent in themselves;
Not if they’re true.
If the voting process is being compromised (whether in Wayne County or anywhere else), I want it to be fully investigated and stopped.
That means we need to be able to voice our concerns about guys in Detroit threatening to disallow voting for people who have not lived at an address because they’ve been evicted, but they didn’t change their address – or about ACORN folks who have registered people to vote 73 times – without being called frauds.
Just my opinion, of course.

The actual number of cases of voter fraud in America is very, very small. I believe about 27 cases have been found in the last four years. In the entire country.
Voter suppression, registering voters and then throwing away their ballots, caging, and many other vote suppression measures have all been much more common, with thousands of cases documented.
The criminals doing those deeds are almost all Republicans.
In Ohio, hundreds of thousands of ballots were destroyed IN DIRECT DEFIANCE OF A COURT ORDER.
This occurred in dozens of Ohio counties,in 2004. Admissions of guilt don’t get a lot clearer than this. If there is no crime , why destroy the evidence?

forget the polls i do not vote the dem and the reb are both evil many church members have been decived to think that the reb are for the LORD but there not. here is why they hate the poor and mccain has mocked the poor time after time and have loved his money thats what he is fighting for . not the unborn or any thing else its all money . he has fooled many preachers to vote for him . but the lord has showed me obama will win because he cares for the poor . i did not vote or will tell you who to vote for mccain took palin for vp to fool the church he realy wanted pro coice joe leberman. go look it up plus bushs mom bush wife s.s.rice dont want to over turn roe vs wade plus many other reb dont want to .so if its not about the money go ask your pastor how much he makes a year see what he tells you ?

James, if it offends you, don’t read – or do you?