Here’s a political riddle: When Republicans attack Democrats for allowing third-trimester abortions, why don’t Democrats respond by pointing out that Republicans want to ban first-trimester abortions? When it comes to abortion, Democrats forever allow themselves to fight on Republican terrain.

And Republicans know it. On page 92 of the 2004 Republican platform was this sentence. “We support a human life amendment to the Constitution.” That means they supported banning all abortions. Yet in his convention speech, President George W. Bush – hero of religious conservatives – never mentioned this position.

More incredible, his Democratic rival, John Kerry, never did either!

Abortion is confounding. Normally, a critical mass of politicians figures out where the middle is and scampers there. That doesn’t happen when it comes to abortion. Most Americans want abortion legal but restricted, and they feel more squeamish about later abortions than earlier ones. Republicans have picked up on that and therefore focused on late abortions. Democrats, following the cues of the pro-choice activists, have never parried in the most sellable way.

Why don’t Democrats hammer this point? Because by emphasizing that Republicans would ban even early-term abortions, Democrats would be implicitly leaving open the possibility that Republicans might be right about late-term abortions. The pro-choice movement wants to focus on absolute rights. The pro-life movement focuses on the unpopular extreme examples (partial birth abortions, minors getting abortions without telling their parents).

This may be about to become more relevant because John McCain will soon be having an Evangelical Moment. He and Barack Obama will be going before the Saddleback Church and pastoral superstar Rick Warren. There, he can remind evangelicals of his consistent anti-abortion position.
As noted last week, Sen. Obama has an excruciating balancing act. In theory, Sen. McCain ought to have just as difficult a task, in reverse. The Republican candidate needs to mobilize evangelicals, who are lukewarm. A new Pew poll found that Sen. McCain’s support among evangelicals is seven points less than Mr. Bush’s at a comparable point. They haven’t become full Obamagelicals yet; they’re just undecided, and can go either way.

On the other hand, Sen. McCain needs to win over independents, including suburban women, who tend to be more pro-choice.

Politically, Democrats should focus on Sen. McCain wanting to ban early-term abortions. But because Democrats refuse to frame it that way, Sen. McCain (like all other Republican candidates in recent memory) can get away with vague statements about supporting “life” and “strict constructionist judges” — terms that delight religious conservatives without alienating pro-choice independents.

If Democrats continue to cast it in terms only of absolute rights, they will have given Sen. McCain a great gift: he’ll be able to do the abortion straddle with less political pain than Sen. Obama

Reprinted from The Wall Street Journal Online Political Perceptions area.