As I was putting together my pieces on the “faith factor” and the vice presidential candidates I found surprised myself. The logic of my own analysis pointed to two men I was not much thinking about.
Obama will chose Joe Biden. I must say, if I’d drawn up a veep list a few list a few months ago, Biden wouldn’t have even made the top ten. He’s a Washington insider and a two-time failed presidential candidate who represents a safe Democratic state (Delaware). But here’s why I think Obama might just go there. The main reason he makes most top ten lists these days is his experience with foreign affairs. What became clear to me was that Biden is probably the best pick in terms of religious politics. Obama desperately needs to retain his lead among Catholics and improve upon John Kerry’s showing. But choosing a pro-choice Catholic could backfire because the Bishops and others will attack him or her for being a bad Catholic. Choosing a full-blown pro-life Catholic would alienate pro-choice, independent women and Hillary voters. Biden is pro-choice but got a low rating from abortion rights groups (60% in 2007, 39% in 2003). In other words, he’s Catholic enough to appeal to Catholics, pro-life enough to avoid Bishop attacks, and pro-choice enough to satisfy Hillary voters.
My Republican prediction: McCain will chose Tim Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota. He needs desperately to strengthen his pull with evangelicals but the two most often-discussed options — Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee — have serious baggage. Romney is a Mormon and therefore loses a big chunk of evangelicals; Huckabee is distrusted by economic conservatives. Pawlenty is evangelical, from a swing state, and without the baggage of Romney or Huckabee.
Of course McCain and Obama will be weighing factors other than faith politics. So if Biden and Pawlenty are not chosen, it will obviously be because the candidates chose to emphasize other factors, and not because my predictions were absurdly naive and ill informed.
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posted August 13, 2008 at 3:44 pm
I agree that McCain needs to strengthen the base of the party. However, I believe (and the Rasmussen polls back up my belief) that Huckabee’s strength’s FAR OUTWAY his perceived “weakness’ with fiscal conservatives, and in fact, his populist message is another strength. Compared to Obama, come on!!! You actually believe anyone would compare Obama and Huckabee economics and go with Obama???? Huckabee has national name recognition, great charisma, the BEST speaker out there, period. He has campaign strength, debate appeal and he actually gave McCain honor and respect throughout this election. He conducted himself during the primaries the way a LEADER does. He has continued to speak out on the issues important to him since the elcetion ended. While he has been an avid supporter of Senator McCain, he has not let his own issues fall by the wayside and THIS IS GOOD. A STRONG leader, a man who ran on the passion of his convictions does not just let them die when he endorses the nominee. I respect Mike Huckabee more than any candidate I have seen in my lifetime. His support base is huge and he makes Senator McCain’s ticket go from acceptable (or maybe not) to dynamite!!!!!
posted August 13, 2008 at 4:03 pm
I have to agree with Linda, Huckabee would be an awesome VP choice. It’s a media creation that he would lose as many votes as he would pull in for the ticket, the exit polls just don’t so that to be true. There are many states where Governor Huckabee got more independent votes than Senator McCain, Virginia one of the swing state just happens to be one of those places. I believe Mr. Waldman should leave Governor Romney’s religion out of it, my congressman is a Mormon and while we don’t share the same faith we do share the same values. That’s my problem with Governor Romney his record only bears out the facts the he cannot be trust on the values that I support. I know he has talked a good game but talk is cheap, and his record clearly points out what he believes.
posted August 13, 2008 at 4:07 pm
Pawlenty’s virtually absent name recognition, in my view, is as big an issue as Romney’s Mormonism in that it’s propensity for any boost to McCain is simply not there. He’s also not really vetted. The base McCain needs demands as much competency as it can get out of a ticket. On that Pawlenty doesn’t come close to matching Romney. The anti-Romney Hucksters are loud, and the secular anti-Mormons on the left would be loud, but neither one is a real shift in terms of vote or the side they would advocate. McCain may loose regardless, but IMO he doesn’t stand much of a chance if he picks a no-name, few-accomplishment, nominal conservative.
posted August 13, 2008 at 4:09 pm
Some people I know think choosing Pawlenty will hurt McCain with some Catholics, because he’s an evangelical convert from Catholicism. No question Brownback’s conversion from evangelicalism to Catholicism hurt him with some evangelicals. I’m not sure whether it would work the other way, but particularly if Obama picks a Catholic–Biden or Kaine, say–I guess it’s a possiblity.
posted August 13, 2008 at 4:14 pm
To the Huck boosters I’d offer this bit of insight from a conservative in Utah that wants McCain to beat Obama regardless McCain’s running mate. If Huckabee was on the ticket UTAH, the “reddest state in the nation,” would be in contention. UTAH could go blue, and I don’t say that because I in any way would support Obama. But I tell you, if there was a ticket that could, in this election, throw Utah into the realm of a Dem upset it would be McCain picking Obama. Now I know Utah counts for beans in the Electoral College, but the bleed over of an Obama campaign being able to say that it was in contention in the deepest parts of “Bush Country” would have ripple effects throughout the Union, and they wouldn’t be ripple effects that’d be kind to McCain’s chances.
posted August 13, 2008 at 4:17 pm
oops..
meant to say “McCain picks Huckabee” not “McCain picks Obama”
posted August 13, 2008 at 4:55 pm
“Of course McCain and Obama will be weighing factors other than faith politics.”
One would never know if that were to happen if one only relied on Beliefnet’s coverage.
Linda, “I respect Mike Huckabee more than any candidate I have seen in my lifetime.”
You respect someone that wants to decimate your Constitution? Oh boy, theocracy here we come.
posted August 13, 2008 at 7:18 pm
HiveRadical,
I’m curious: why would Huckabee be so unpopular in Utah?
Steve
posted August 13, 2008 at 7:41 pm
Steve,
Because he used religious bigotry to beat Romney (a Mormon who saved the Utah Olympics) in Iowa.
posted August 13, 2008 at 9:03 pm
I will vote for McCain if he chooses Romney or Rice. Huckabee is out of the question at this point.
posted August 13, 2008 at 9:15 pm
All three of these men have taken political beatings in the process of the Primaries. The way to heal at this point is to unite around the best interests of America.
It is telling that Huckabee still thinks he is in the Primaries.
McCain’s choice is McCain’s choice.
Considering that economy, not religion, will be the big issue in this election, Romney seems leaps and bounds more qualified than any other VP prospect.
Still, I don’t get to tell McCain what to do. He will be judged by over 200 million Americans for his decision, not just the most bigoted 5 or 10% of ten or twenty million evangelicals and not just 13.5 million Mormons.
Maybe we should ask the Catholics what they think.
Maybe we should just let McCain choose without any extra input. Give him a nice quiet room. Let him pray if he is a praying man. He has very little time to make a decision and a lot of Republicans, qualified and unqualified, to choose from.
My vote, now that I think about it, is to give him room.
posted August 14, 2008 at 11:32 am
IT IS NOT ROMNEY RELIGION, IT IS HIS MASSIVE FLIP FLOPS ON ALL SOCIAL ISSUES. I DO NOT KNOW WHY THE NARROW MINDED PEOPLE KEEP SAYING IT IS BECAUSE HE IS A MORMAN, IT IS NOT, IT IS B/C ROMNEY HAS NEVER HELD A SINGLE POSITION HIS ENTIRE POLITICAL CAREER. THE INTERNET IS HERE AND WE CAN FIND OUT OURSELVES. HE IS PRO-GAY RIGHTS, PRO-CHOICE AND WILL SAY WHAT EVER HE HAS TO TO GET ELECTED. IT DID NOT WORK IN THE PRIMARIES AND IT WILL NOT WORK NOW…WE DO NOT WANT HIM CHECK HIM OUT ON MASSRESISTANCE.ORG, HE IS A SLIM BUCKET WHO BETRAYED THE PEOPLE AND I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR HIM…