The campaign (and pundits) seem to think picking Palin will pick up disaffected Hillary voters. I doubt it. Let's think about who the Hillary voters are. First, some are ardent feminists, furious with the rejection of a highly qualified woman. It's unlikely that they'll go for a pro-life, relative3ly unqualified candidate. A second bloc are those who don't want to vote for black. They'll vote for McCain (or more accurately against Obama) in any case, regardless of the VP.
While I do think the Palin pick might help lure women, it's not the women all the pundits are talking about. The Palin pick will help attract moderate, young evangelical women, whom Obama had targeted, and it will insure that conservative evangelical women will show up at the polls and work hard. It might also with undecided, independent women who were not Hillary supporters and are still on the fence.
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I think and I hope that Sarah Palin will be an inspiration to the the young evangelical women who never conceived of such great achievements in someone not very different from themselves. Young women in the evangelical community are rarely encouraged to pursue a career path and have few prominent women that they can identify with as role models. These young evangelicals who may have been more indifferent to the election this year may actually rise up because they see more for themselves through the successes of Sarah Palin. Finally, they can see that one not be a secular feminist to put their gifts to work in a career path without abandoning the joys of marriage and motherhood.
Steve,
Your analysis is excellent. I think a lot of the MSM pundits have been ham-handed in their understanding of McCain's motives, but your nuanced dissection is an admirable exception. The ardent feminists -- the folks who read Ms. Magazine and the NARAL and NOW activists -- will support the Democratic ticket no matter what (just as they stuck with Bill Clinton in the late 90s despite his proven record for mistreating women). On the other hand, the choice has motivated pro-life women and all social conservatives. And, yes, it will have an impact with working women and suburban moms ... though the extent of that impact remains to be seen.
There are many factors that motivated McCain ... but I think one common denominator in the McCain-Palin relationship that can't be overlooked is Senator Ted Stevens. The senior GOP Senator from Alaska is a long-time nemesis of McCain's ... and, now we learn, has been the object of Governor Palin's efforts to root out corruption in Alaskan politics. The "Bridge to Nowhere" -- and the efforts by both McCain and Palin to squash this ridiculous pork-barrel project that had been long promoted by Stevens -- may turn out to be the bridge which brought McCain and Palin together in the first place.
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