The ABCNews poll is a bit “out there” in projecting a nine point lead for Obama. But putting aside the overall horserace number, two stats jump out at me.
Yes, a lot of this is driven by the economy but there’s been a stunning change in just two weeks on the question of who is “more honest and trustworthy.” Just two weeks ago, McCain led on that question 44%-38%; now Obama leads 47%-36%. That would seem to indicate that McCain’s campaign ads backfired.
Second, white Catholics have shifted massively. Two weeks ago, they favored McCain 57%-38%. Now they favor Obama 47%-46%. As a point of reference, George Bush beat John Kerry among white Catholics 56%-43%.
A lot of this is simply about the economy — and if they shifted this much in one direction this fast, they can easily go back the other way before the election — but, as I argue here, there may be some more fundamental shifts going on among Catholic voters – even among the most devout.
UPDATE: This new poll from NBC and the Wall Street Journal has a much closer race, with the white Catholic vote sticking with McCain.
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posted September 24, 2008 at 11:35 am
Haven’t Catholics–even devout Catholics–always been the weak link in the social conservative movement? In a movement driven by Evangelicals and with spokesmen like James Dobson and Pat Robertson, it was only a question of time before the relationship would deteriorate. The coalition was largely built on abortion and gays, but it was a political alliance more than a religious one.
Evangelicals have generally been more lockstep with the GOP and the conservative movement, while Catholics–even devout Catholics–have been followers and not leaders. Despite the presence of devout Catholics in the conservative pundit class, it’s never been clear that they represent any real constituency. People like Kmiec, who have challenged devout Catholics on the abortion litmus test in voting, have required people to ask hard questions.
I also think the Internet has allowed for a discussion within Catholic circles that doesn’t exist in Evangelical circles. There is a grass roots, in-the-pews discussion of social justice that doesn’t appear to exist among Evangelicals.
posted September 24, 2008 at 1:58 pm
I would be very wary of this ABC poll. It is not in line with most polls that are out there in several areas.
Also lets gets real here. A massive demographic shift like this is hard to swallow.
If there was a major shift in the Catholic vote then how come thi snot showing up in the Catholic Heavy Battleground states where McCain is tied or slightly ahead.
posted September 24, 2008 at 2:08 pm
“I also think the Internet has allowed for a discussion within Catholic circles that doesn’t exist in Evangelical circles. There is a grass roots, in-the-pews discussion of social justice that doesn’t appear to exist among Evangelicals.”
As a Convert to Catholicism from a Evangelcial faith let me say how much of the”Social Justice” issue stuff is talked about in the pews appears to me be way overblown. Evangelcials talk about these issues too but do not call them SOcial Justice. That is one reason why people like Bobby Jindal and other go and speak at Penetecostal like Churches. Many issues of Social Justice economic quality are discussed. Let us recall that for years Evangelcials were pretty loyal FDR democrats.
Further we saw quite a bit of these issues discussed among the Huckabee supporters in the primary
One final though on Catholic SOcial Justice issue. I have become quite disillusioned with some of the most prominent Advocates. On one of the biggest Catholic Social Justice Issues in decades (besides Abortion) was immigration reform. McCain put everything on the line for that not just once but twice. Prof Kmiec(who you say is making us ask hard (questions) has not quite told us now how he could support Romney who was battering McCain over that issue. Catholic SOcial Justice groups when commenting on these issues seem to just ignore the Immigation reform issue. Perhaps it is because it favors McCain. It is an embarrassement
posted September 24, 2008 at 2:18 pm
“I would be very wary of this ABC poll. It is not in line with most polls that are out there in several areas. Also lets gets real here. A massive demographic shift like this is hard to swallow. If there was a major shift in the Catholic vote then how come thi snot showing up in the Catholic Heavy Battleground states where McCain is tied or slightly ahead.”
I agree with this. But see my longer piece on the underlying shifts within the Catholic community that have showed up in numerous polls. http://blog.beliefnet.com/stevenwaldman/2008/09/are-evangelicals-and-catholics.html By the way, these shifts may not result in massive votes for Obama but may be changes that play out over many years.
posted September 24, 2008 at 4:26 pm
Let us recall that for years Evangelcials were pretty loyal FDR democrats.
Not for at least three decades. The world of political Evangelicals has changed dramatically since 1978.
posted September 25, 2008 at 9:45 am
John Hagee anyone?!?!?!
posted October 17, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Several of my fellow Dallas Catholics have written to our local bishops, who just put out an an incredibly harsh pastoral letter that was read from the ambo on Sunday. It all but endorsed McCain (or keyes??) by name, and implied that if a Catholic votes for someone not 100% pure on abortion, that we ware immoral and going to hell.
Two dozen people got up and walked out.
This is not the understanding we had of Faithful Citizenship–which actually tells us NOT to be single issue voters. I wish the Dallas and Fort Worth bishops would really give more than lip service to the intrinsic evils other than abortion. Or that they would consider how the array of positions of a candidate might do more to promote a culture of life than simply making abortiion illegal.
Some Catholics in Dallas have written the bishop, begun protests and created an online petition drive:
http://www.catholicsforchange.org
Speak up!! Speak out!! Change the conversation!!