David Gibson has a fascinating post over at Progressive Revival in which he (and Mark Silk, by extension) argue that abortion shifts very few votes. They cite numerous studies, and make a persuasive case — when it comes to most Catholics.
But one of the great myths of American politics is that the abortion fracas is largely about the Catholic vote. It’s not. It’s largely about the evangelical Protestant vote. This is ironic, since it was the Catholic Church that led the pro-life movement for years, but now poll after poll shows that Catholics either don’t care much about abortion or pretty much reflect the general range of public opinion on abortion.
Evangelical Protestants, however, are far more pro-life than Catholics and seem to care more about it as an issue.
So let me be more precise about who abortion matters for: moderate evangelicals, many of whom agree with Obama on many issues but not on abortion. It seems to me about 10%-15% of evangelicals are “in play” (McCain prior to Palin was underperforming among evangelicals compared to Bush by about that much).
As for Catholics, it’s certainly not a factor for conservative Catholics who were going to vote for McCain anyway. And it’s not decisive for liberal Catholics who were going to vote Obama anyway. But the question (not answered in most of these polls) is how important is abortion for that sliver of middle-of-the-road swing Catholics. I suspect that it’s important for some of the mass-attending “convertible Catholics” (as Amy Sullivan dubbed them).
This may sound like I’m slicing the baloney pretty thin. A sliver of a sliver of evangelicals. True — except that evangelicals and Catholics each represent about a quarter of the electorate. A sliver here, a sliver there, and pretty soon you’re talking some real votes.
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posted September 18, 2008 at 3:30 pm
I really have to wonder what kind of research you do to come up with these crazy conclusions.
Abortion was so important last presidential election that it decided the election! (See http://www.lifenews.com/nat4205.html)
Post-election polling after the 2004 presidential elections found that President Bush’s pro-life stance gave him an edge over pro-abortion Sen. John Kerry.
A 2004 Wirthlin Worldwide post-election poll found that 39 percent of voters said abortion affected the way they voted for president. Twenty-four percent of those voters cast their ballots for President Bush while 15% voted for Kerry, giving Bush a 9 percent advantage on the issue of abortion.
Eight percent of voters in the Wirthlin poll indicated abortion was the “most important” issue affecting their votes and Bush won among those voters by a six to two percent margin, leading Kerry by four percentage points among the most intense abortion voters.
Bush won by a smaller margin, making it clear that the four percentage point edge on abortion was enough to put him over the top.
posted September 18, 2008 at 3:49 pm
among those in the post-vactian II generation only 7% think the church is right. In my church most of us would prefer not to have an abortion happen but we understand that we sometimes are given choices where both outcomes violate the commandments.
I know 1 woman that her body doesn’t realize her baby is dead. The doctor confirmed there is no heart beat. So there are two choices:
1) hope that she miscarries or doesn’t go septic.
2) abort the dead fetus — which would be illegal if some Churches got their way.
My wife knows 1 woman that had an abortion because the egg didn’t implant its self right in the uterus and thus could have never been carried to term. Would it be right to let her die because her body wouldn’t miscarry?????
Its not black and white there are always exceptions. Jesus taught that we need to do the right thing and not be leagalistic about it. I find it funny that hard core anti-abortionists think I’m pro-choice. I’m not. I’m just not 10000% pro-life. try 85-95%(extreme circumstances only).
posted September 18, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Price: If the fetus is dead then there is no problem with removing the body from the mother’s womb. I’ve never heard any church or individual say otherwise. I can’t imagine a circumstance where anybody would.
As to your second example, the Church wouldn’t tell anybody to carry an ectopic pregnancy either.
posted September 19, 2008 at 10:02 am
Another great example of media trying to marginalize the abortion issue when it comes to pro-life. Keep looking over the site and you’ll probably find a few more. pax