It seemed like 2004 was a high water mark for evangelical influence. They loved President Bush and helped sweep him into victory.
Well guess what: evangelicals made up an even bigger part of the McCain vote than the Bush vote.
Born again Christians or evangelicals made up 36% of Bush vote and, by my count, 38.5% of the McCain vote.
Some of that results from non-evangelicals - Catholics in particular -- abandoning the Republicans while evangelicals mostly stayed put. But the Republican ticket actually drew two million more evangelicals in raw numbers than George Bush did, presumably because of excitement about Sarah Palin and extreme fear of Barack Obama.
Whatever the reason, some four million more evangelicals turned out this time than last, some going to Obama but most to McCain.
This leaves many questions still open: Polls showed that Sarah Palin cost the ticket votes. Did the increase in evangelical voters she helped trigger make up for that? Since they represent such a key part of the Republican party will they have more clout going forward? Or will they be blamed for the loss and have less power?
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Interesting article. Relevantly, many prominent experts and publications have pointed out that Obama is part of Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and GenXers. And Evangelicals are disproportionally concentrated heavily within this Generation Jones cohort.
You may find this page interesting: it has, among other things, excerpts from publications like Newsweek and the New York Times, and videos with over 25 top pundits, all talking specifically about Obama’s identity as a GenJoneser: http://www.generationjones.com/2008election.html
In 1984, polling data revealed that the AFL-CIO endorsement cost Walter Mondale two votes for every vote it brought it. The religious right is now doing the same thing to the Republican Party. There are not enough of them to win a national contest and too many of them to allow the rest of the country to feel comfortable voting for Republicans.
"Polls showed that Sarah Palin cost the ticket votes. Did the increase in evangelical voters she helped trigger make up for that?"
Polls did not show Palin costing the ticket votes.
Exit polls show Palin appeared to help McCain by energizing the pro-life Republican base and were motivated by her selection to support him.
Some 60 percent of voters said Palin was a factor when making their vote and they split for McCain over Obama on a 56-43 percentage point margin.
That's not costing votes.
I think the growing presence of the conservative evangelical in the GOP presents a real problems for the party, as it will become increasingly narrow in it's focus and appeal to a shrinking voting block. It may render itself a permanently minority party if the trend continues. I think that is why we may well see a civil war in the GOP for control: the old gaurd fiscal conservatives want to wrest the party from the culture warriors. This will be a losing war, like most civil wars, for the winner will drive away the loser, and still be a minority party for decades to come.
I don't understand the math. Waldman says that McCain got 2 million more evangelical votes than Bush, but 4 million more evangelicals turned out this election. He then says that McCain got most of these 4 million. But according to those numbers, out of the 4 mill new evangelical votes, half went to McCain and half to Obama. What gives?
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