John McCain's Path to Victory

I'm struck by how many analysts are saying that if McCain loses, it was absolutely inevitable, a result of the financial meltdown.

I don't buy it. The meltdown certainly made it harder, along with the weak economy that pre-dated the stock market drop. But there was a path for McCain -- and it involved not caring so much about the views of the Religious Right.

Look at three of the swing tribes profiled in our 12 Tribes study: the "Whitebread Protestants," "Convertible Catholics," and the "Moderate Evangelicals."

Respondents were asked whether they wanted to have fewer government services "and reduce spending accordingly" or the more services. The percentages saying they wanted fewer services and less spending:

• Convertible Catholics: 2004: 26%, 2008: 38%
• Whitebread Protestants: 2004: 31%, 2008: 37%
• Moderate Evangelicals: 2004: 23%, 2008: 39%

This survey was conducted before the financial collapse so those numbers might have changed but it shows that the basic instincts of these swing groups are economically conservative. In a way, these groups are tailor made for a liberal Republican, or potentially a "maverick Republican."

McCain would have had to:

• Distance himself from Bush very early in the campaign. And I don't just mean an occasional swipe but a meaningful, persistent critique of the Bush years and how he would be different.
• Choose a running mate that appealed to these groups in particular, a moderate with great credibility on the economy. These voters crave centrism, moderation and a sense of responsibility. Perhaps someone like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
• Handle the financial meltdown, er, better.
• Do less negative campaigning and focus more on having a compelling plan for the economy

This strategy would have annoyed and even alienated some religious conservatives. Obviously McCain felt that he needed a Vice Presidential selection that would energize them because he was weak with the base.

This was his fundamental error.

He needed to take the chance that religious conservatives would vote for him despite him embracing a more moderate path. Once he decided that his first priority was shoring up his base, he had no chance. Perhaps he felt he really had no choice. He apparently was told that had he picked Joe Lieberman as his running mate, social conservatives would have staged a floor fight.

If McCain chose Palin because he feared the religious right, then social conservatives will have bear some of the blame for a McCain loss (as they'll certainly deserve much credit if he wins).

Of course if McCain wins tomorrow, disregard everything I just wrote.