I’m struck by how many analysts are saying that if McCain loses, it was absolutely inevitable, a result of the financial meltdown.
I don’t buy it. The meltdown certainly made it harder, along with the weak economy that pre-dated the stock market drop. But there was a path for McCain — and it involved not caring so much about the views of the Religious Right.
Look at three of the swing tribes profiled in our 12 Tribes study: the “Whitebread Protestants,” “Convertible Catholics,” and the “Moderate Evangelicals.”
Respondents were asked whether they wanted to have fewer government services “and reduce spending accordingly” or the more services. The percentages saying they wanted fewer services and less spending:
• Convertible Catholics: 2004: 26%, 2008: 38%
• Whitebread Protestants: 2004: 31%, 2008: 37%
• Moderate Evangelicals: 2004: 23%, 2008: 39%
This survey was conducted before the financial collapse so those numbers might have changed but it shows that the basic instincts of these swing groups are economically conservative. In a way, these groups are tailor made for a liberal Republican, or potentially a “maverick Republican.”
McCain would have had to:
- Distance himself from Bush very early in the campaign. And I don’t just mean an occasional swipe but a meaningful, persistent critique of the Bush years and how he would be different.
- Choose a running mate that appealed to these groups in particular, a moderate with great credibility on the economy. These voters crave centrism, moderation and a sense of responsibility. Perhaps someone like New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
- Handle the financial meltdown, er, better.
- Do less negative campaigning and focus more on having a compelling plan for the economy
This strategy would have annoyed and even alienated some religious conservatives. Obviously McCain felt that he needed a Vice Presidential selection that would energize them because he was weak with the base.
This was his fundamental error.
He needed to take the chance that religious conservatives would vote for him despite him embracing a more moderate path. Once he decided that his first priority was shoring up his base, he had no chance. Perhaps he felt he really had no choice. He apparently was told that had he picked Joe Lieberman as his running mate, social conservatives would have staged a floor fight.
If McCain chose Palin because he feared the religious right, then social conservatives will have bear some of the blame for a McCain loss (as they’ll certainly deserve much credit if he wins).
Of course if McCain wins tomorrow, disregard everything I just wrote.
posted November 2, 2008 at 6:28 pm
John McCain failed to prove to the independents that he was all that different. He pandered to the Bush base and used Swift boat tacicts that drove us away.
His choice of Sarah Palin left us screeming “What is he doing?” I was leaning to Obama from the first, but McCain stepped into the mud, bit his foot and just shrugged it off.
If Obama is not elected as president it will be because of mass voter fraud. I hope the Republican party learns from this and next time runs an honest, fair election. Something they have not done sense Ike was elected.
posted November 2, 2008 at 6:30 pm
I think John McCain was putting country first when he chose Sarah Palin as his running mate.
In all probability, even two months ago McCain knew his defeat was inevitable. The greatest path to service, then, would be to expose the lunatic Christian right and remove it forever from political evidence, and how better to do this than to choose a small-state governor married to a secessionist and blessed by an exorcist.
It is my fevent hope that those who are enthused by Sarah Palin and Joe the Plumber will reach their heights of personal acheivement by moving to Alaska to await the rapture. Then, finally, maybe the rest of the country can begin to move forward again.
Of course, if McCain wins, you’ll know I’m entirely wrong.
posted November 2, 2008 at 9:11 pm
As a Christian, I find Sarah Palin and her brand of Christianity to be one of the best reasons to vote for Obama. It is the kind of Christianity that completely misunderstands biblical teachings about political power and that has allowed itself to be manipulated by a Republican leadership that cares nothing about religion except for its ability to get out the vote.
As we can see by how easily conservative Christians are being swayed by accusations of socialism and un-americanism, the republican religious base has turned patriotism and capitalism into idols. We do not need four more years of this mess (much less two more decades of a conservative-stacked Supreme Court).
posted November 2, 2008 at 9:23 pm
I agree with Steven’s reason. In addition, McCain never laid out a truthful message for improving America. He was constantly flip-flopping and giving conflicting information. Instead McCain focused on lying and smearing Obama.
I cannot understand why some states are in incapable of having fair and easy for the voter elections. I cannot believe the long lines at some early voting places.
For many years computer security experts have been telling governments that they are vulnerable to security breaches. The state of California released a detailed report on several brands of voting machine, which found everyone was susceptible to being breached.
posted November 2, 2008 at 9:45 pm
Many Americans are moderate and McCain in principle should have appealed to the masses based on his ability to cross the aisles and his willingness to buck trends. In the past he was seen as a maverick but that message wasn’t told in a compelling way. Even more damaging is picking a Vice President running mate who has even less experience that his running mate. His arguement that Obama doesn’t have enough experience runs hollow by his choice of Palin. Many wanted a reason to vote for McCain and he effectively drove them away.
posted November 2, 2008 at 9:50 pm
“Of course if McCain wins tomorrow, disregard everything I just wrote.” Steve Waldman
Are you voting on Nov. 3?
If McCain wins on the 4th, I’ll KNOW this country has totally lost it’s collective mind!
posted November 2, 2008 at 9:50 pm
I think it is one thing to decide that one candidate is better than another. It is quite another to state that one candidate will be the savior indicating that the country will be destroyed by another candidate. Especially since the candidate that you are purporting as the savior has been very closely allied with the current administration that has sent us into a recession. I am unsubscribing to to your daily inspiration because I do not want this propaganda in my email. I am praying that as a Christian, you will ask God if this is his will his view or your own. Is this truly the way you believe Jesus would have handled these comments. God Bless You!
posted November 3, 2008 at 11:22 pm
Okay, here we go: let the blame game begin. More specifically, let’s blame Palin some way or another.
Look, here’s the reality. Bush’s stubborn adherence (some would say conviction) to his neo-con philosophy has driven America into the ground. We’re in a war that no one but religious conservatives understands, and his refusal to regulate Wall Street has brought down the walls. Americans are ANGRY….and it wouldn’t have mattered who McCain picked, or what he would have done, the Republicans would still have lost.
It’s a Democrat year, folks. And the deck will be plenty stacked after this election. Republicans will get thrown out of Congress and replaced by more Dems than you can shake a stick at. The electorate is about to give Obama and his brigade the keys to every office.
God help us all!
posted November 4, 2008 at 1:30 pm
“If McCain wins on the 4th, I’ll KNOW this country has totally lost it’s collective mind!”
If Obama (a man who spent over twenty years under the mentorship of his pastor who said “the US of KKK A” “God Damn America” and believes America caused 911 and invented the AIDs virus to harm black people) wins today, I’ll KNOW that this country’s majority does NOT honor America and all she has stood for over the generations. I will also KNOW that Americans have fallen under God’s judgment.