If Sarah Palin's sudden resignation reflected a decision to run for the Presidency -- and not some new scandal about to erupt -- it means the critical figure in the Republican party now is Mike Huckabee.
Palin is armored in Christian teflon. Many of her supporters view her not just a victim of persecution for being conservative but for being "Christian." She is therefore nearly impervious to attack because any piece of information that emerges from the mainstream media or the blogosphere will increase her Christian martyrdom. The more she's attacked, the stronger she becomes.
Despite her problems, she'd still be a formidable candidate for the Republican nomination because she's beloved by religious conservatives, in large part because of her decision not to abort Trig. Religious conservatives are an even bigger part of the Republican primary electorate than ever.(38.5% of McCain's vote came from evangelicals compared to 36% of Bush's).
She can only be taken down by a conservative with good standing in the evangelical community. Mark Sanford had a shot, but he's busy reminiscing about the tan lines on his Argentinian Bathsheba. As a Mormon, Mitt Romney will never be taken seriously among the majority of evangelicals. Given his own infidelities, I'm doubtful Newt Gingrich can win over the evangelical audience.
That leaves Huckabee. As a former Baptist minister himself, he has standing to criticize Palin without being cast as anti-Christian. Mainstream media mistakenly assume that Huckabee failed last time because his base was too limited to religious conservatives. Actually, he fared no better among Christians than McCain and Romney early on. He was distrusted by many in the party for being too liberal, not for being too conservative.
But he's spent the last year buffing his conservative credentials, including hosting his own show on Fox News Channel (the First Republican Primary). His amiable style enables him to attack without seeming mean.
It leaves us with two questions: has Huckabee sufficiently strengthened himself with the religious wing, and does he have the chutzpa (as they say in the evangelical community) to go after Palin?
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First of all, I believe this analysis is spot-on and accurately describes the (suspected) Republican nominees for 2012.
As to the two questions: a) I do not believe that Huckabee has done enough to strenghten his hand with conservatives. As a Southern Baptist myself (just like Huckabee), I didn't support him because he was not conservative enough. He needs to be more forcefull and outspoken in his conservative views to change his perception; and b) I don't believe it's in Huckabee's best interest to attack Palin, at least not at this point. There is nothing to be gained by it and he will anger her fans whose support he will definitely need if he were to run for president.
"She is therefore nearly impervious to attack because any piece of information that emerges from the mainstream media or the blogosphere will increase her Christian martyrdom."
Good point. I believe Obama benefited from the exact same armor being the first "serious" black canidate. No matter what came up regarding his past and his current affiliations he only seemed to emerge stronger.
Your Name -
The reason conservatives are like a lamb to the slaughter when there is sexual indescretion is because they look very hypocritical. In public they speak of family values and virtue and of being religious and moral and when no one is looking they are having an affair. Bill Clinton was never known as being a moral pious guy.
Jared -
Not only is it not done that way but one sure way to ensure a Dem victory in 2012 would be to have a Huckabee / Palin ticket. There is way to much folksly (translated as not intelligent) plus their combined I-am-a-better-christian-than-you attitude would ensure that every independent votes for the Dems. Being a good Christian is all in how you live not how loud you shout it.
Good thoughts. I would add that Gov. Huckabee would be a far better candidate in that while he is a true conservative , he would reach out to the undecided centrists in a way that Gov. Palin never could.
I'm puzzled by the commentary--for what would Gov. Huckabee criticize Gov. Palin? I think the commentator is showing his anti-Palin feelings by seeking someone from the GOP to attack her. As he correctly noted, Huckabee was rejected by the conservative voters for being too liberal--he was not conservative fiscally. Palin, by contrast, has Alaska in fine economic condition through her negotiation of a natural gas pipeline.
I was very impressed with Gov. Huckabee's run for president. His faith came through in his political platform far more than any of the other candidates. He reached out to the working and middle class in ways the other candidates were unable too. He seemed less worried about what is liberal or conservative than what is right and what will work. I hope that doesn't change. I have seen little original thinking of any kind from Palin. Attacking the liberal media may play well to a small group of anti-government types and it definitely feels good to do but it is not a formula for winning a national election.
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