Steve Waldman: August 2008 Archives

The TV networks are talking about the great disruption that Hurricane Gustav has caused the poor Republicans.

Oh please! This is great news for McCain. His main dilemma this week was how to distance himself from the Bush administration given that Bush and Cheney were going to be featured speakers at the convention. Problem solved, thanks to Gustav.

The scene of McCain down in Mississippi, pronouncing that he is putting country before party by cancelling the first day of the convention so he could lend support to the volunteers and first providers -- well, that certainly does fit the Country First theme. He's a virtual Rudy Giuliani, down there. Oh, and it shows his spiritual side: "We're monitoring it from day to day and I'm saying a few prayers," he told Fox News. If he's lucky, the first three days of the convention will be cancelled and he'll get to deliver the acceptance speech on a screen from Louisiana. He's a bad podium speaker, and a good TV talker.

The only scenario I can think of that would turn this into a negative would be if Gustav causes a major oil spill as it blasts past the oil and gas rigs. Otherwise, Gustav will be very good for McCain.

Evangelicals Christians exerted enormous influence on McCain's decision -- for better or worse.

John McCain had wanted to appoint Joe Lieberman, his close friend, but religious conservatives protested so vehemently that McCain felt he couldn't go that way, The New York Times reported. Paul Weyrich, a leading conservative, apparently pushed hard for Palin, according to the National Journal. James Dobson, who once said he might not vote for McCain, now feels she was a God-send: "A lot of people were praying, and I believe Sarah Palin is God's answer."

The choice has thoroughly energized religious conservatives. They especially love that she not only is pro-life but decided to carry to term a Down's Syndrome baby -- a point mentioned repeatedly in the Palin announcement.

If Palin is the spark that helps carry the ticket to the White House, the influence of religious conservatives will be enormous. Reports of the demise of the old Religious Right will prove to have been highly premature. In fact, religious conservatives will have helped reformed the Republican party, promoted conservative values and energized the pro-life movement.

If, however, she proves a drag on the ticket, the risks to religious conservatives could be significant. If she proves unequipped for high office, it will look like religious conservatives sacrificed all other considerations to abortion. If she proves dishonest or if the compelling story of her Downs Syndrome baby ends up being not what if first appeared* then religious conservatives will be viewed as gullible.

Just as important, the growing group of evangelicals - especially the young - who feel that evangelical leaders had become too political, too hitched to the Republican party, will view Palin as the ultimate example of how easily duped religious conservative leaders are.

*link deleted

Have we ever had an ex-Catholic on a major presidential ticket? I can't think of any.

Palin was Baptised as a Cahtolic and later became an evangelical Protestant. This will thrill evangelicals (quite a few of which are ex-Catholics) but I wonder how Catholics will feel about it. It's unclear when in her life she left the Catholic Church.

The traditional Catholics who might normally be the ones who be more irked about such apostasy are thrilled because Palin is so pro-life, as God-o-Meter reports.. The liberal Catholics won't care because they're voting Democratic anyway. The riddle is those centrist Catholics - the key swing bloc - who have stuck with the Catholic church through great difficulties out of loyalty and cultural affinity. Will they view her as a person of great conscience who lives her convictions - or a traitor?

The always-shrewd Jeff Weiss at the Dallas Morning Newsy characterizes her as a post-denominational Christian.

Doug Weed, a Bush friend, notes that Palin not only helps with evangelicals but with Pentecostals in particular, who have been especially cool to McCain.

He also raises a very good political point: if Democrats start attacking her as a Creationist yokel, it will un-do much of Obama's faith outreach. In fact, this is almost inevitable that some liberal bloggers will do just that and the Republicans will gather up every one of those Christian-mocking quotes to prove that the Republicans respect them and Democrats don't. For Obama to avoid this fate, he's probably going to do a Sister Souljah on those Democrats who mock Palin, specifically coming to her defense on matters of faith.

The campaign (and pundits) seem to think picking Palin will pick up disaffected Hillary voters. I doubt it. Let's think about who the Hillary voters are. First, some are ardent feminists, furious with the rejection of a highly qualified woman. It's unlikely that they'll go for a pro-life, relative3ly unqualified candidate. A second bloc are those who don't want to vote for black. They'll vote for McCain (or more accurately against Obama) in any case, regardless of the VP.

While I do think the Palin pick might help lure women, it's not the women all the pundits are talking about. The Palin pick will help attract moderate, young evangelical women, whom Obama had targeted, and it will insure that conservative evangelical women will show up at the polls and work hard. It might also with undecided, independent women who were not Hillary supporters and are still on the fence.