Use the Weapon of Memory Against Iran

There is a complex of issues that the Iranian nuclear threat poses to Israel and the West. To date, none of these issues have been addressed in a meaninful or realistic way by any government. The first issue is the certainty, that without preventive action, Iran will create a Muslim bomb and this is a significant threat to the U.S. and most certainly Israel. When Iran acquires a bomb, then 2 bombs, then 10, then 20, etc., the fate of every Israeli will hang by a thread. There is little to indicate that any collection of complaining powers will dissuade Iran from this path. Iran likely will have several potential delivery systems available to concurrently launch nuclear weapons against Israel. These include relatively sophisticated Russian and Chinese intermediate range rocket propelled missiles, subsonic jet propelled missiles, and aircraft with sufficient range to reach Israel. It would seem likely that Iran will be able to MIRV the rocket warheads. Such technology is readily available. Similarly, israeli defenses will likely be overwhelmed by firings of conventional warheaded rockets and Iranian air attacks. Iran has an impoverished and poorly maintained fleet of U.S. warplanes provided the late Sha, but also Sadam's air force that was sent into Iran at the start of the last war. These craft are likely in better shape. In any case there should be no lack of suicide pilots for these aircraft. If such an attack is launched, it is not likely Israel alone will be capable of sufficient retaliatory force to cause an equivalent devestation upon Iran--in any event is not retaliation mooted by the sheer ferocity of an Iranian attack and the devestation of Israel. I suggest that after the fact, and after the required hand-wringing by the nations of the world, and the likely condemnation of Iran, there will be sufficient support in the Arab world, both overt and covert, to buttress Iran and aide in any clean-up from Israeli retaliation, nuclear or otherwise. In point of fact, Israel will have ceased to exist and the Arab/Muslim mission would have been accomplished. This scenario can unfold even more to the advantage of Iran and the Muslim world. First, Iran will certainly emerge as the leader of the Muslim world for doing the unthinkable and destroying Israel. Those nations that were early to the peace process, Jordan and Egypt will have likely paid a price from collateral damage wroght by fall-out, poorly aimed bombs, etc. The Palestinians will continue as martyrs to the Zionist evil as well as the Americans. Americas stock in the Arab/Muslim world will not exist and the West will appear powerless. What are the options (are there any)? I suspect both the U.S. and Israel understand that the range of options are very limited. Israel cannot tolerate a single nuclear weapon to exist in Iranian hands. The reasons are two-fold. Iran will certainly use such a weapon against Israel. Secondly, Iran will also provide the technology to other militant Arabs/Muslims or terror groups, and the problems will have spun out of control. The only viable actions, given the dire circumstances of: the certainty of an uncompromising Iranian government; the necessity to prevent the development of these weapons and the placement of them in the hands of terrorists; and the survival of Israel in a meaningful form is preemptive. The logic is inescapable. Israel must destroy any facilities it can to slow Iran's nuclear capabilities. For various reasons, this preemptive strike will likely be 50%-60% effective. Israel will certainly require the assistance of a major U.S. action in order to effectively destroy 75% of Iran's capabilities.
The political fallout will be very negative short-term and only less so for mid-term (2-3 years). But it will be effective, and should completely discredit the Iranian leadership, destabilizing their hold on the popular consensus. It seems to me that, that there is no choice.

Mr. Horovitz makes many significant points and asks whether the West will in effect do little or nothing to stop the Iranian threat. I suspect that Mr. Horovitz already knows the answer: the western powers will do nothing. It is almost certain that the United Nations will do nothing that is effective. It is also certain that no non-western consortium of nations will do nothing, and are just as likely to feel pride in the defiance of Iran to any semblance of rationality. It is very likely, however, that the U.S., understanding the significance of the Iranian threat, and really being the only western power with sufficient military capability, will act alone. Given that the Iranians are already on a course of developing deployable nuclear weapons, the choice for the U.S. will be to act alone, or in concert with Israel. Israel cannot allow a single nuclear device to be deployed by Iran, never mind the possibility of 2, 4, 6, or 10 devices. Israel certainly understands this fact and I suspect the U.S. does as well. It seems to me likely that the U.S. will act alone and before Israel is forced to launch a preemptive strike.

It is unlikely that any western nation other than the United States will feel duty bound to aid Israel simply because Israel's existence is threatened. There are two reason's for this: no nation other than the U.S. has the ability to project sufficient force to aid Israel or even their own interests in more than a token way; no other western nation other than the U.S. would have it's own interests at stake. Nations act only to protect their own interests, and the U.S. does have sufficient interests that would be threatened by the presence of Iranian nukes and their likely use. Only the U.S. can project sufficient power and that use of power will firstly result from a U.S. interest in the preservation of Israel and mitigation of any threats to overall U.S. interests. Morality has little to do with the relations of nations with each other.