The point of Obama's message was not to influence policy, however. It was simply to generate goodwill at teh grassroots level among the Iranian population, which in turn will generate upwards pressure which will benefit candidates for reform. We aren't going to see a change in Iran's atitude overnight, but rather as part of a long-term process of engagement with the people who really matter - the Iranians themselves. No wonder the mullahs are scared.Obama's overture comes ahead of national elections in June. Ahmadinejad faces a tough campaign against reformists, who favor better ties with the West and the United States.
The reformists, led by former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi, may try to use promises to thaw the nearly 30-year diplomatic freeze to gain votes. In contrast, conservatives may get caught between maintaining their tough position or offering some opening for dialogue with Washington.
At the least, Obama's overtures put pressure on hard-liners to justify their anti-American stance to Iranians, said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Previously, the hard-liners have been able to blame the impasse on Bush, who was widely unpopular in Iran.
"Rather than tip the scales in favor of (hard-line) radicals, as the Bush administration did, I think Obama's efforts at diplomacy will undermine them and puncture their narrative of a hostile U.S. government bent on oppressing Iran," Sadjadpour said.
Obama's acknowledgment of Iran's rich history and culture will undoubtedly resonate well here and could encourage calls for leaders to begin deeper contacts.
But all depends on Khamenei, who holds the last word on any major policy decisions. Without backing from the ruling clerics, no diplomatic initiatives toward Washington are possible and could work in Ahmadinejad's favor in the campaign.
smart power: Obama's video to Iran provokes fear
Monday March 23, 2009
Categories: Nation-Building
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton spoke extensively of "smart power" in her description of how America's foreign policy would seek to engage the world. Obama's video message to Iran, on the occassion of Nowruz, is destined to become a case study for "smart power", given that it probably did more to influence the upcoming Iranian elections in our favor and towards the path to reform than any sanctions or "axis of evil" rhetoric ever could have. As reported by the Associated Press, Obama's video sparked a negative reaction from Tehran, precisely because they recognize it's threat:
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About City of Brass
City of Brass by Aziz Poonawalla approaches issues from the perspective of a Muslim of the West. Aziz, a member of the Dawoodi Bohra Muslim community, has been blogging since early 2003. His other major Islamsphere projects include the group weblog Talk Islam and the annual Brass
Crescent Awards. Aziz currently resides near Madison, WI with his wife and children.
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Sorry Aziz, it's just not the case. Tehran is far less fearful of the US than ever. Look at both their actions and words since Obama's inaguaration. Provocative, defiant, direct and steadfast. They have now stated that they WILL become a nuclear power, they have stepped up their support of Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas and have essentially turned down every really nice gesture by Obama. That isn't fear, that's the certainty that comes from knowing you've got a very weak opponent in President Obama. Wise up will you?
It is a great relief that President Obama is continuing some of the smart actions initiated by President Bush in disarming Islamist terror, like speaking directly to Iranians on their New Years.
Unfortunately, those good actions are outflanked by dreadful moves, like his letter to Russia secretly selling Poland and Eastern Europe down the river for cheap bargaining power. Russia exposed the letter to its advantage, saying in essence "Thanks, we accept a defenseless Eastern Europe, and you get nothing in return," showing Obama's awesome ad hoc duplicity to a sobered world.
Smaaaaaarrrt.
who fear obama? he likes to be liked by others and he got it as president, but what can he do, he has to nice and not to offence anyone or any nation. he likes to be liked. poor him....
Moderates in Iranian theocracy? Surely, you jest?
These are the same moderates that constantly call for the destruction of Israel, the destruction of the West, and the destruction of the Great Satan, the USA.
It was the moderates that, before Ahmedinejad, called for the Fire of Allah to be built, an allusion to nuclear weapons. And that this Fire of Allah will cleanse the world of Israel and the Great Satan the USA.
We must not have illusions as to the real radicalism even the so-called moderates continue to espouse.
More power to Obama for using reason and changing the coarse of stupidity of the "axis of evil" mindset that emboldened our own fanatics: the kinder, gentler taliban of the religious right.
You think Iran is full of extremests? Thank the good ol US of A's reprehensible policies of the last fifty years for helping make it that way. One could hardly blame them for trying to show some leverage in their place on the map.
Do I condone Irans actions or policies? No. But do I find the sheer hypocracy and downright criminality of Isreal and America discusting? Absolutely. The more we can get out of the middle east (END BOTH WARS for starters, don't escalate them Mr President) and practice real neutrality the more we can begin to comprehend real peace.
Bush and Cheney were a part of the axis of evil. They are gone. Perhaps we can hope for real reform in Iran. They have an amazing population of people who deserve better than the fundamentalist filth that has perverted them for too long.
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