Do Mike Huckabee’s surprising Super Tuesday victories in the Deep South–where he took Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Arkansas and West Virginia–translate into a delegate boost that puts him within reach of the Republican nomination? Almost certainly not, though some of the next primary states in line–Virginia, North Carolina, and Texas, provide some Huck-friendly territory. But Huck’s surprise wins yesterday offered important lessons about the state of the Republican race:
1. Even as he has emerged as the Republicans’ national favorite–with twice as many delegates as Mitt Romney and three times as many as Mike Huckabee–McCain’s problems with the evangelical base of his own party are only mounting. More on that here.
2. Mitt Romney’s years-long effort to become the Christian Right’s candidate has failed. Yes, he won over many movement elites, including PR magnate Mark DeMoss, Dominos Pizza founder Tom Monaghan’s, and–tacitly at least–Focus on the Family’s James Dobson. But the movement’ rank-and-file never accepted him. There are three reasons why. First, it’s difficult to campaign as a social conservative when you were emphatically pro-abortion rights and pro-gay rights just a few years ago. Second, Romney’s a Mormon, which exacerbated the trust issues with evangelicals. And third, it’s difficult to be the Christian Right’s golden boy when you’re running against a Baptist minister. In the-pews evangelicals clearly preferred an alternative to John McCain yesterday, and it was Huckabee. Huck won evangelical heavy states like Missouri and Georgia decisively, while Romney’s support came from party moderates. But the same problem that plagued Romney among evangelicals was also a curse among moderates: he won enough of them to be competitive, but not to win moderate states like New York and California.
3. David Kuo’s mantra for the ’08 cycle—that pronouncements of Christian Right leaders matter less than they used to—is spot on. (Remember the Christian Broadcasting Network’s Pat Robertson endorsing Rudy Giuliani last year?) In a last-ditch effort to stop McCain, James Dobson issued a blistering statement against him yesterday. But Dobson’s evangelical following, while hardly breaking decisively for McCain, nonetheless provided crucial support for him in many states, including Arizona. At the same time, Huckabee’s surprise Tuesday victories came without help from Christian Right titans like James Dobson or the Family Research Council’s Tony Perkins, who were skeptical that Huck could be a viable national candidate and thought him too soft on fighting terrorism and illegal immigration.
4. With the evangelical movement on your side, money and media matter a lot less. Huck’s campaign has always run on shoestring, but Romney’s millions couldn’t buy Huck’s evangelical support. And though the news media wrote Huckabee off after he failed to win another state after Iowa—Huckabee was begging Anderson Cooper to ask him questions during last week’s CNN presidential debate—Huck’s evangelical network more than compensated. The “Invisible Army” strikes again.
5. For Republican candidates, winning a huge slice of the evangelical vote is still a prerequisite s for winning the GOP nomination. But it’s not enough. For all his success yesterday, Huckabee still hasn’t broken out of his evangelical base. He hasn’t won a single state where evangelicals account for less than half of primary voters. In key swing states like Missouri, Huckabee won only 20-percent of non-evangelical voters. Which is why the fears of Christian Right leaders over Huckabee’s national viability are well founded.
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posted February 6, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Great analysis (as to be expected), Dan.
Question that’s been rattling around my head of late:
Do you think this highly unorthodox primary mandates two things? One, that McCain has little choice, if he hopes to win over righty Evangelicals, but to take on Huck as his running mate (which, I imagine, Huck would embrace quite emphatically).
And, two, do the results of Super Tuesday essentially represent a public *demand* that the Democratic ticket be a Clinton/Obama ticket? I would suggest it does, and I would suggest it would be a hell of a good ticket, as well. It would pretty much leave all bases covered. I could *not* see an Obama/Clinton ticket, but I think Clinton/Obama would help solidify a unnecessarily fracturing Democratic party.
Thoughts?
posted February 6, 2008 at 1:43 pm
Speaking to the people of faith, I am one myself. If we believe the Bible and most people of faith say they do. Then we should vote in line with the Bible that we believe or our faith is not truly a real faith just nice to have. Ask yourself which way would God want us to vote on issue of the unborn, marriage, and character. Then which candidate is the closest to the way God wants us to vote. Forget about which party , sex, or race God is a whosoever God. Now, people can say anything but their record will tell the truth. That’s my thoughts.
posted February 6, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Gov. Huckabee’s wins in the South had as much, if not more, to do with his stance on the proposed “Fair Tax” and alignment with Senator Jim Sessions’ tough illegal immigration Bill (the only candidate to have done so with either). Huckabee’s stands haven’t been promoted by an increasingly biased and manipulative media, who would prefer to have the general public believe it was an evangelical “thing”. I’m not an evangelical Christian and resent being lumped in with a voting bloc. These past weeks in the South, most talk on the street had to do with Huckabee’s promotion of the Fair Tax, backing the Sessions’ Bill, and the media’s hidden agenda by ignoring both in its reporting. Little, if any, did I hear of Huckabee’s religious affiliations in the mix. These two issues were very much on the minds of southern voters on Super Tuesday. WC
posted February 6, 2008 at 4:00 pm
Huckabee doesn’t have sex?
Where did his children come from then? Clay?
posted February 6, 2008 at 4:57 pm
John–I agree that Huck’s Southern victories yesterday make him a very tempting pick for McCain. There’s one big problem, though: there are lots of anti-tax, anti-immigration conservatives who don’t like Huck. So McCain would win over a lot of evangelicals but could leave the Rush Limbaughs and Sean Hannities of the world unsatisfied. It used to be the Democratic candidates who had to check all the boxes of the dispirate interest groups who comprise their party. Now it’s the Republicans. As for the Democrats, pressure for a Hillary/Obama ticket continues to mount. Latest vote count from esterday:
Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971)
Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851)
posted February 6, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Stan….you mentioned this “Ask yourself which way would God want us to vote on issue of the unborn, marriage, and character.”
And my first thought…is that there are SO many other real issues going on in the nation and the world right now that really matter more.
So, I ask myself…which way would God want me to vote on the issues of Genocide, the war we’re in, our economy and living outside our means as indicated by the trillions in deficits run up by the current administration. I wonder which way God would want me to vote in regard to free speech issues, and my right to privacy and yours. I wonder how God would want me to vote on our ability to deal and talk and try to find common ground with the rest of the world. I wonder what God would want me to do to help in the environmental issues I can control. I wonder what God wants in regard to people’s right to health care.
There are more than gays, abortion, and “family values” as defined by the current loonies in power. There are TONS of things messed up, that need to be fixed. And quite frankly, my God is more concerned with those issues that affect you and I, and can create real change. Rather than dictating morals on someone else.
My God, wants me to tread lighter in this world, be compassionate to others, and not judge those who might see things differently than I do.
I don’t have the “keys” to the door to heaven. Neither does James Dobson…he just thinks he does, and is more than willing to tell me.
The middle majority in this country, are fed up with the moral agenda “minority”. And we are family value people,Christian, moral etc.
We’re moving on….and this election will prove it, I would guess.
paradox
posted February 7, 2008 at 2:52 pm
Ok, like so many of you who can’t put your name on your post, I did. And I for one stand with Mike Huckabee. Paradox, I don’t know what you read or how you believe, but my Bible says that a nation who has innocent blood on its hands will not prosper. Last time I checked, we have 50,000,000 unborn babies deaths on our hands. And yes it is because the Christians in the ’70′s were too busy waiting on the return of Jesus. Well, my generation no longer wants that blood on their hands. I am happy to support a man who does not rub elbows across the aisle to get his name on a bill. I am happy to support a man who believes abortion should be abolished and a constitutional amendment passed to protect the unborn. My God says to protect the sanctity of life. I invite you to read the Bible sometimes. Last time I checked, it was not a compromise. God wants it done his way.
posted February 7, 2008 at 8:43 pm
Amen to that brother. Too many people have created a god of their own understanding and one who makes them feel comfortable. The God of the universe, Jehovah, the God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob; the Great I AM, is a God who said you should have no other gods before him. Not even the ones we create in our minds. I second the previous comment. Read the Word, follow the Word, and recognize that there is no negotiation in God’s standard of right.
Thomas
posted February 8, 2008 at 7:39 am
America is still the home of the free and the brave. It has and is still opening its arms to the world yet…what we were once founded on in the begginning is slipping away. We all better open our eyes to the truth of what is happening in our world today. I don’t have the answers to the problems in America today, but I know who does! If we who are Christians would believe His word it would be a great help. Quote from the Bible…”If my people who are called by my name will repent and turn from their wicked ways I will heal their land.” America needs a healing! Yes, by prayer and trust in the almighty God we will not go wrong.
posted February 8, 2008 at 3:02 pm
“He hasn’t won a single state where evangelicals account for less than half of primary voters.”
I wish that people would clairify this statement. Evangelical by definition fits a lot of people. You can make the case that most of America is Evangelical. And if its the belief in the 5 solas that makes you a fundamentalist most people are fundamentalist too.
I would say that Huckabee failed to carry a lot of states where Evangelicals are 80% of the population.
From The National Association of Evangelicals (NAE):
-We believe the Bible to be the inspired, the only infallible, authoritative Word of God.
-We believe that there is one God, eternally existent in three persons: Father, Son and Holy Spirit.
-We believe in the deity of our Lord Jesus Christ, in His virgin birth, in His sinless life, in His miracles, in His vicarious and atoning death through His shed blood, in His bodily resurrection, in His ascension to the right hand of the Father, and in His personal return in power and glory.
-We believe that for the salvation of lost and sinful people, regeneration by the Holy Spirit is absolutely essential.
-We believe in the present ministry of the Holy Spirit by whose indwelling the Christian is enabled to live a godly life.
-We believe in the resurrection of both the saved and the lost; they that are saved unto the resurrection of life and they that are lost unto the resurrection of damnation.
-We believe in the spiritual unity of believers in our Lord Jesus Christ.
From the above I’d say most of christian denominations are evangelical, including mainline.
posted February 10, 2008 at 3:02 pm
Regarding Jon’s comment about abortion: I would first like to make clear that I am no more for abortion than you are. However, I don’t believe that making abortion illegal is going to solve this problem. In fact, what I foresee happening in that event is many young women taking it upon themselves to get rid of their unwanted child. (Especially if the child is a product of rape!) Which is not something we want any more than the unborn child’s death. All it will result in is the hospitalization of these young women, and possible their deaths. So on the one hand, we have the deaths of the unborn children. And on the other, the deaths of the young women AND their unborn children. Hmmm, quite a dilemma indeed. I personally prefer to let God be the one to deal out the judgment on this issue. I trust that God is taking care of both the unborn children and the women and doctors in His own way. Why do we constantly feel the need to emit judgment in God’s name? At the risk of sounding anarchist, making a law doesn’t stop that law from being broken. People will do what they want for as long as they feel justified in doing it. *There is righteousness and there is SELF-righteousness. Know the difference!*
posted February 11, 2008 at 9:08 am
Rebekah,
I couldn’t agree more. One of the first things they teach in Civics class is that in a republic such as ours, laws are only really effective when they have the agreement of the governed. The perfect example being the speed limit. Here in Atlanta, the speed limit is 55 mph on I-285 (The Perimeter) but the average speed is closer to 70 mph. No matter how many patrols and police cars are added to the mix, the speed doesn’t ever really go down because the people don’t agree with the speed limit. The same was true for Prohibition – all that created was a lot of rich lawbreakers without really reducing the drinking levels of Americans. Given that most Americans are ambivilent about abortion (believe it is a terrible thing but don’t want to go back to the days of backstreet abortions) maybe we need to develop a different conversation about the issue. We, as a nation, need to accept that there will always be unmarried people having sex (as much as I and every other parent in the country might wish it otherwise) and that our “mission” should be preventing pregnancy – rather than having to deal with the aftereffects of an unplanned one. I had a set of teachers in high school who said the following:
“We are not your parents or your ministers and it is not our place to tell you whether or not to have sex. We are your teachers and this is a public school. You are all high school seniors and will be graduating this year so you need to start being responsible for your own decisions. What we can tell you is that there are no good answers to an unplanned pregnancy. Whatever decision you have to make once you are pregnant, it won’t be a good one so, if you are going to be sexually active, be safe about it.”
This is even more true now in a time of HIV/AIDS. Isn’t it time we got over this infantile obsession about sex and dealt with reality? If we really want to make abortions obsolete, we need to stop the unplanned pregnancies that lead to them.
In addition, as a staunch Republican, I want a smaller government that does not invade my privacy and lets each of us live our lives according to our PERSONAL morals rather than dictating one group’s morals to everyone. My personal morality is that abortion is wrong and, when confronted with someone who is asking my advice, that is what I tell them (I also provide them with information about resources to help with adoption). But I also know that not everyone agrees with me and that not everyone believes that life begins at conception – just as not everyone believes that only God should take a life (i.e. the death penalty is evil and a sin). This is America and one of the things that makes us great is that we allow each of our citizens freedom to make those decisions for themselves. If you don’t believe in abortion, don’t have one but how dare you assume that you have a right to make the decision for everyone else. God is quite capable of judging His children without the help of sanctimonious officious dolts.